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Tag:Arizona Diamondbacks
Posted on: June 8, 2009 9:16 pm
Edited on: June 9, 2009 3:44 pm
 

MLB Mock Draft 2009

Hello, welcome to my 2009 MLB Mock Draft.  This is where I will try to predict every pick for the first several rounds.  With the recent news of Kyle Gibson’s stress fracture and other stock changes, I have just completely remade my mock draft, before I even released the first version.  I had originally planned to mock all the day one picks, the first one hundred and eleven.  But, because I have had to change many picks, I am not sure I will be able to get that many done by the draft tomorrow.  I will however, mock as many picks as possible and provide sufficient information on each pick.  I will continue working on this and update it, as I finish each round.  My goal is to predict 20% of the picks I mock.  I hope those of you who read my write up enjoy, please comment, and come back tomorrow for my thoughts on the draft itself.  Later in the week, I will be reviewing the draft, so look for that as well. 

Scouting reports come from a number of sites, most prominently Baseball America, PGCrosscheckers.com, John Sickel’s site minorleagueball.com and milb.com. 

There are a couple places in the draft I want to point out now, for when I come back to grade - how many picks I got right - my mock.  Where ever a team is picking back-to-back, notably Arizona at 16 and 17 and the Angels at 24 and 25, if I guess a guy at one of those two spots and he is picked by that team at the other spot, I’m counting it.  Also, in the first round supplemental, I am counting any player I guess the correct team for.  If Nick Franklin goes to the Angels in the supp. no matter what pick, I’m counting it.  I think that’s fair, right?  Anyways, enjoy. 

I have decided I am going to post what I have on the blog, and add to it, as it gets done.

First Round

1. Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg RHP San Diego State

Strasburg is the number one pick of the 2009 MLB draft.  My official prediction for how much he signs for… $21.5 million.  Strasburg is the best prospect in the draft era, and would fit into a big league rotation immediately.  I would love for the Nationals to send him to AAA, so I can see him in Syracuse, and give you all my own scouting report of him.  He throws his fastball in the high 90s and can touch 103 mph.  He also throws a hammer breaking ball in the low-to-mid 80s and a changeup he throws in the low 80s.  I worry a little; I think its possible Strasburg blows out his arm at some point, a la the guy a lot of people compare him to, Mark Prior.  With a comp. of Mark Prior, who wouldn’t worry?   Anyways I seem to be in the minority on this. 

2. Seattle Mariners: Dustin Ackley OF North Carolina

If Strasburg is on the first tier of prospects by himself, I would say Ackley is on the second tier, all by himself.  He is clearly the best hitter, having “plus, plus hittability”, according to milb.com’s draft report.  He adds plus speed and range in centerfield.  Ackley has dispelled any thoughts that he wouldn’t be able to play centerfield, following Tommy John surgery last summer, which had him saddled at first.  The main question on Ackley is how much power he’ll hit for, and although I don’t think he needs too much to be an effective major league hitter, he certainly hit 20-30 homeruns.  There was some talk about the Mariners wanning on Ackley and considering Aaron Crow or Tanner Scheppers, but I don’t buy it, Ackley’s the guy.  What I think the Mariners are getting in Ackley is a future no. 3 hitter, who is going to play centerfield, hit .300+ with a .400 OBP, and be a 20-20 guy (Curtis Granderson better OBP?), not bad, eh?

3. San Diego Padres: Donavan Tate OF Cartersville HS (Georgia)

After the first two picks things get very interesting, very fast.  It seems as though the Padres have narrowed this selection to three guys: Tate, Aaron Crow and Mike Minor.  Although, if I were running this draft, I would take Tyler Matzek, who I believe is the third best prospect in the draft.  Crow would also be a good pick, but Minor is a clear overdraft.  If Ackley falls, the Padres WILL take him.  Tate has, perhaps, the highest ceiling in the draft.  However, he is also going to cost a lot of money, close to six million?  Tate has a strong commitment to North Carolina, where he would play both football and baseball – his father Lars Tate was an NFL player.  There are also questions about Tate’s hit-ability.  I like Tate at this spot for two reasons: 1. He’s the guy available with the most upside and San Diego’s system could really use some upside, particularly up the middle 2. If Tate doesn’t go number three, I don’t know where he goes, so I instead of forcing a headache upon myself, I’ve decided to take the risk, along with the Padres, and take Tate. 

4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Aaron Crow RHP Fort Worth (University of Missouri)

As previously stated, I’m fairly certain about the first two picks, however, every other pick is far from certain.  Rumors have swirled around the Pirates, involving a sign-ability pick here.  Names discussed include: Tony Sanchez and Bobby Borchering.  The Pirates would like to save money because they are rumored to be the favorites to sign Dominican Miguel Angel Sano a SS, the rumored price is four million.  Apart from those rumors the Pirates are known to like college pitchers and the top arm on my board is Aaron Crow, who has little negotiating power and should sign around slot.  If Crow’s name sounds familiar, it should, he was the number nine pick in last year’s draft, and went to an independent league, along with Tanner Scheppers, after failing to sign, I had him going number ten to my Astros.  Crow throws a low-to-mid 90s sinking fastball, a plus slider and an at least average changeup, which is his biggest improvement from last year.  Personally, I like Crow and think he has front of the rotation upside, as a reliever he could pitch in the major’s later this season and could be in a rotation next. 

5. Baltimore Orioles: Tyler Matzek LHP Capistrano Valley HS (California)

As previously stated, Matzek is the third prospect on my board, and although Zach Wheeler seems to be the popular pick here of late, I still like Matzek – and I love the idea of Wheeler seven to his home state Braves.  Matzek throws his fastball up to 95 mph, but sits in the low 90s.  He throws two at least average breaking balls, a curveball he throws in the mid 70s and a slider in the mid 80s.  He also throws a changeup, but hasn’t needed it yet.  Matzek may not be a true no. one starter type, but he has good 2/3 starter upside, with much more polish than you would expect from a HS pitcher.  The Orioles usually draft the best player available (BPA) and don’t shy away from guy with perceived signability problems.  I do think the Orioles would love to add a good position player to their system, but there is no one of value here, so the Orioles will be “forced” to add to their already stellar crop of pitchers. 

6. San Francisco Giants: Tanner Scheppers RHP St. Paul (Fresno State)

Scheppers is a tough guy to slot in.  Many experts have him falling out of the top ten and in some cases out of the first round, because of fear for that same shoulder problem that made him fall last year.  However, because I am mocking through the first supplemental, I would hate to have to guess how far Scheppers is going to fall, I mean, I already have to do that for Kyle Gibson, so I’m not going to torture myself and do it for Scheppers too.  I like this fit.  Although, I haven’t seen many people agree with me, that’s ok though.  Scheppers has put together a good showing in St. Paul and should be close to major league ready.  He profiles as a top of the rotation starter, but does come with injury risk.  He throws his fastball in the mid 90s and can put “cut and sink” onto it (according to milb.com).  He also throws a power curve and changeup.  Like the Orioles, I think the Giants would love to add a bat and could be a possibility for Tate should he fall past the Padres, but without sufficient value on my board the Giants will also add to their “stellar crop of pitchers”.  Jacob Turner and Zach Wheeler are also candidates. 

7. Atlanta Braves: Zack Wheeler RHP East Paulding HS (Georgia)

I hope the Brave appreciate me dodging two bullets (the Orioles and Giants) to deliver them their prized Georgia arm.  Wheeler was the guy I liked at the beginning of the year for the Astros, but since, has had his stock rise more than just about anyone in the draft.  Wheeler has a perfect pitcher’s body at 6’4 170, and also fits Atlanta’s mold as a prep local product, as an added bonus, he’ll sign for slot!  Wheeler already throws up to 95 mph and still has plenty of projection.  He also throws an above average curveball and the makings of an average change.  The sky is the limit for Wheeler, who has one of the highest upsides among the HS pitchers in this draft, but he also has some mechanical problems. 

8. Cincinnati Reds: Alex White RHP North Carolina

This is where I had Gibson slated for awhile, dubbing him the Yonder Alonso of this draft.  However, due to the stress fracture, the Reds are unlikely to take him – although they could – and I don’t have to explain my Gibson = Alonso comparison.  White has been up and down, but I still believe he has the highest upside amongst college pitchers NNS (not named Strasburg).  I actually really like White and believe he would be a steal here.  Leake and Grant Green are also possibilities.  White throws a low 90s fastball, which gets up to 95 mph; his 2-seamer has great movement to it.  His slider is also a plus pitch, he throws a splitter as an off-speed pitch, as well as a below average curveball. 

9. Detroit Tigers: Jacob Turner RHP Westminster Christian Academy (Missouri)

Jacob Turner wants Rick Porcello money, well; why not give him to the team with a Rick Porcello void in their minors?  Turner has a large frame at 6-5 220 and is already throwing in the mid-low 90s.  He also throws a mid 70s slider.  He hasn’t really needed a changeup in high school.  Matt Purke is now being rumored

10. Washington Nationals: Chad Jenkins RHP Kennesaw State

Jenkins is a bit of an overdraft, but not too badly, since many think he could go to the Blue Jays at twenty also.  The Nationals have also been attached to Mike Trout and others with this pick.  The idea being to sign someone at or below slot since Strasburg is going to cost $21.5 million.  Jenkins throws his fastballs, two and four seamers, in the low 90s.  He adds a low 80s slider and changeup. 

11. Colorado Rockies: Mike Leake RHP Arizona State

Leake was the big mover during the college season, as he moved up probably a round.  He led division I in a couple statistical categories – so eat it Strasburg.  However, Leake profiles as a 3/4 starter, with a high floor.  He throws a high 80s/low 90s sinking fastball, he adds a high 70s/low 80s slider and plus changeup.  He command is plus, plus.  He’s short, but athletic for a pitcher.  The last four drafts, 78% of the Rockies’ top 137 picks have been college players, 50% have been college pitchers.  Mike Leake is a nice complement to Christian Friedrich (last year’s first rounder), and gives the Rockies a nice trio of advanced pitchers (throwing Jhoulys Chacin into the mix).  Plus they need all the pitching help they can get – although all three of the pitchers I listed profile towards the middle of the rotation.

12. Kansas City Royals: Wil Myers C Wesleyan Christian Academy (North Carolina)

After a couple years of paying for high priced talents: Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, etc, the Royals are looking for a bargain at a premium position (C, SS, CF), and rumors include Tony Sanchez, the top college catcher.  However, I like the higher upsided (yes, upsided, I like the way it sounds) Myers.  Myers has raw power and all the tools to become a solid defensive catcher, with a good arm.  He is also very athletic for a catcher, with above-average speed. 

13. Oakland Athletics: Grant Green SS Southern California

Before the season, Grant was expected to be one of the first three picks in the draft.  However, he has played his way down, as many now question his ability to stay at short, as well as his power.  Green does, however, have good hitting ability, and average to above-average speed.  His arm is also at least average, leaning above-average slightly.  However, (milb.com) he has some trouble ranging up the middle and his power is more line-drive power than anything else, but he could hit 15-20 homeruns.  Oakland’s MO is established college players, which makes it Green or Brothers in my book.  The A’s are also attached to Donavan Tate, should he fall, and his reported $6 million price tag, so signing Green should be no problem.  By the way, I love me some Green.  I think he’ll stick at short, and be a near .300 hitter with 15-20 homeruns… that’s enough. 

14. Texas Rangers: Shelby Miller HS Brownwood HS (Texas)

If there was a lock this late in the draft, it’d be Miller to the Rangers.  It fits there MO, he’s local, it works.  He throws in the mid 90s with a good curve in the mid 70s, but he has some command issues.  He’s plenty projectable.  Let me double check if this makes sense: Texas usually takes the BPA; money shouldn’t be a problem and they like their fire-ballers, yep, Miller does makes sense. 

15. Cleveland Indians : Mike Minor LHP Vanderbilt

  Mike Minor has been rumored all over the first round, but there is no clear consensus on who that one team is who takes him.    The Indians want Miller, but he won’t get there.  So, it will be the best college player on their board.  The question is who is the top college arm on their board?  It could be Minor, Rex Brothers, James Paxton or Eric Arnett.  I picked Minor.  Mainly because he would fall in my mock if I didn’t put him here (if he doesn’t go here, my prediction is 19 to the Cardinals.  Minor is a low ceiling/high floor starter.  He throws a low 90s fastball, along with both a slider and curveball, and a good enough changeup.  He probably has 4/5 starter upside. 

16. Arizona Diamondbacks : Rex Brothers LHP Lipscomb

17. Arizona Diamondbacks: Bobby Borchering 3B Bishop Verot HS (Florida )

Here’s the first pair of D’back picks.  They like to go high upside HSers early, followed by college floor.  Borchering has one of the best bats in the draft.  He is switch hitter with great bat speed and raw power from both sides.  Many believe he will have to eventually move to first but, I think he could stay at third.  His speed is average or a little below.  His arm is about average as well. 

Brothers is a guy I like a lot.  He throws his fastball in the mid 90s, he also throws a good slider, with a lot of movement, hasn’t thrown his changeup too much.  He’s a rare lefty that can dial his fastball up to 96/97 mph and I think his ceiling is 2/3 starter if he develops his changeup. 

18. Florida Marlins : Chad James LHP Yukon HS (Oklahoma )

Chad James is the guy I’m hoping falls to the ‘Stros at 21, but it’s unlikely he will as he is coveted by the D’backs, Marlins, Cardinals and Blue Jays.  The Marlins develop HS pitching very well, so James makes sense here.  If Borchering gets to here, I could see the Marlins taking the in-state third basemen.  James is a lefty with a low 90s fastball, he has touched 95 mph.  He also throws an above-average power curve and above-average changeup.  He has plenty of projection.  I seriously don’t know why James isn’t considered one of the elite HS arms, but one team will benefit as a result in the 16-22 range. 

19. St. Louis Cardinals : James Paxton LHP Kentucky

Word is the Cardinals are leaning left-handed pitcher, the options being: Minor, Brothers, James and Paxton.  One of them will fall, and in this scenario it’s the Boras corp. client, Paxton.  Paxton throws in the mid-to-high 90s, along with a hard slider and a change, which isn’t worth praising.  I don’t like Paxton, lack of a real changeup, command, questionable mechanics, Boras, but it seems like the Cards do, so he’s the pick.  

20. Toronto Blue Jays: Eric Arnett RHP Indiana

This was a tough one.  I’ve been hearing college arm.  The Jays would have liked Jenkins, Minor or Brothers, but none of them fell.  I also think Chad James is an option, although history would show the Jays shy away from HS arms in the early rounds, and Matt Hobgood is still an option.  Kyle Gibson, post-injury, has been rumored here and I think Mike Trout or Tim Wheeler are options here.  Trout has one of the highest upsides amongst position players and Wheeler is the next best college bat.  I went with the college arm route and took Arnett, although I am far less than confident with that pick.  Arnett is a 6’5” righty, who throws in the mid 90s, he also throws a slider in the high 70s/low 80s which can get batters out.  His changeup needs some work.  I’m not in love with this selection, but that’s mostly because I’m not in love with Arnett, who has risen this season, after an increase in velocity.  I also am not high on his secondary pitches or command, but he has to go somewhere in the first round… I guess, and he could go as high as 15. 

21. Houston Astros: Slade Heathcott LHP/OF Texas HS (Texas)

I have gone over this pick again and again.  I have changed my mind many times, and I still have no clue.  I have studied Astros drafts, particularly last year’s.  I have looked at the pool of names, over-and-over again, but still nothing looks right.  What does look right is Chad James.  He’d be perfect.  He’s the top guy on my wish list, but I really don’t think he’s going to last here, and I decided to adhere to my integrity as a blogger (ha) and have him go earlier.  I also like Rex Brothers, but he also will probably be gone.  There are other names in consideration here: Matt Hobgood would make sense as the next best HS arm, Jared Mitchell is the best athlete, I call Tim Wheeler “the Jason Castro of this draft”, and I started a recent buzz about Mike Trout.  Seriously, I participated in John Sickel’s mock draft on Saturday and took Trout with his pick, and since then, a bunch of people have started talking about Trout to the Astros.  I would love to see it, but I’m afraid Houston isn’t taking an OF from New Jersey and people just went to John’s website saw the pick, and liked… maybe I’m just being ethnocentric, I don’t know.  Anyways, the guy at thebaseballdraftreport.com said, “ a great tip though for any young mockers out there – go with as many off the wall picks as possible because, on the off chance you get lucky and nail one of them, you’ll be lauded as a prophet. Mock drafts almost work counter to basic human nature as people often forget the bad picks, but clearly remember the good ones.”  (By the way I suggest thebaseballdraftreport.com to anyone interested in the draft, lots of good insight)  I like this idea.  Houston is my favorite team, so I am going to hook them up with one of my favorite draft prospects, Slade Heathcott and actually it could happen...  Heathcott has one of the five highest upsides in the draft (among position players).  However, he has signability issues and character issues, which is why most teams are considering him for the second and third rounds.  The Yankees, among other teams are thinking about nabbing Heathcott in the first, due to the lack of solid options.  The Astros are also high on Heathcott, plus the all important, Texas factor.  So, why can’t the Astros jump on Heathcott?  One thing I can tell you about Bobby Heck and the current Astros draft philosophy is, they do not care about the consensus.  They will take whoever they believe to be the BPA, and it could be Heathcott.  Look at Jason Castro and Jordan Lyles from last draft?  Now go look at how they’re doing in their first full season… Jason Castro, by the way, for all you Astros fans, was called up to AA Corpus Christi and will be ready for Wednesday’s game.  Heathcott is a five-tool outfielder.   According to milb.com, he has “plus hitting ability”, “plus power to all fields”, above-average speed, plus arm strength and a plus defender.  I am going to try hard, to will this pick into reality. 

22. Minnesota Twins: Jiovanni Mier SS Bonita HS (California)

The MO on the Twins: HS bats, college arms.  Mier is the kind of toolsy player they like and with the first couple of tiers of college pitchers gone; he seems like an obvious choice.  Mier is the top HS shortstop amongst a deep class.  He has all the defensive tools to stay at short too.  He also has some hitting ability, with a little power to go with it. 

23. Chicago White Sox: Andrew Oliver LHP Oklahoma State

Oliver throws a mid 90s fastball along with a plus changeup, but he does not really have a breaking pitch yet.  He is also a Boras corp. client, but that shouldn’t bother the Chi Sox.  The White Sox have, however, been attached to several of the toolsy outfielders still around: Trout, Everett Williams and Reymond Fuentes. 

24. Los Angeles Angels : Tyler Skaggs LHP Santa Monica HS (California)

25. Los Angeles Angels : Mike Trout OF Milville HS (New Jersey)

Another back-to-back pick, remember if Skaggs goes 25 or Trout goes 24, I’m still counting it as a correct pick.  The Angels, like the D’backs have an abundance of early round pick, so they could do almost anything with them, but based on their philosophy and lack of talent in their system, they’ll go HS, HS, HS, early and often.  Skaggs is a California arm.  He throws a low 90s fastball, but should add more velocity as he matures; he is 6’5” 180 and offers plenty of projection, and some.  Skaggs also throws a plus curveball in the low 70s. 

Trout, like I’ve said is one of the ten best bats in the draft and I’ve heard it said that he is the most likely guy in the class to join the 30-30 club.  He’s a five-tooler with solid defensive skills and a plus arm. 

  26. Milwaukee Brewers: Garrett Gould RHP Maize HS Kansas

Gould just looks like a Brewers pick.  I get a Jake Odorizzi vibe from him, in fact.  He throws his fastball in the low 90s and can get into the mid 90s a little.  He also throws a plus curve and a decent enough changeup.  Gould also has that all important, no not “Texas factor”, projection thing.  He’s 6’4” 190 after all.

27. Seattle Mariners: Drew Storen RHP Stanford

  Storen is the top closer in the class, but I think he’ll be drafted as a starter, and the Mariners seem like a team that would do it.  He throws his fastball in the low 90s with good movement.  He also throws his curve in the low 80s and has an effective changeup.  That three pitch mix makes me think starter.  The Mariners are big on college players in the draft, by the way. 

28. Boston Red Sox: Matt Purke HS Klein HS (Texas)

Purke is easily one of the fifteen best players in the draft, but he wants so much money and there are only so many teams that are going to pay $5 million + for a prospect.  Which means someone is going to fall and the likely candidate is Purke.  So, some team at the bottom of the draft will luck out, possibly the Red Sox.  Purke throws his fastball in the low 90s, touching 95.  I’ve said that a lot, I mean, a lot of pitchers throw in the low 90s touching 95.  He throws his curve in the high 70s and has a good changeup.  He also has good command and a projectable body. 

29. New York Yankees: Matt Hobgood RHP Norco HS (California)

New York needs talent and s high school arm as good as Hobgood’s should be tough to pass up.  SS/RHP David Renfroe (this year’s Casey Kelly and Slade Heathcott have been rumored here.  Hobgood throws his fastball in the low 90s, he also throws a plus curve in the mid 70s, according to milb.com it could be the best curve among HS pitchers in the class.  He doesn’t have a changeup though, so he’ll need to work on a third pitch. 

30. Tampa Bay Rays: Max Stassi C Yuba City HS (California)

The Rays’ position of need on the farm is at catcher, and with Stassi available need happens to coincide with the BPA.  Stassi has great instincts and makeup; he also has all the defensive tools behind the plate and an average arm.  His bat should be good and he has some power. 

31. Chicago Cubs: AJ Pollock OF Notre Dame

The last four years, 85% of Cubs picks in the top 149 pick have been college players.  Pollock happens to be a personal favorite of mine, and it is tough to let him go to the Cubs, but the pick makes sense.  Pollock has a very advanced approach at the plate, and has gap power.  He is an above-average runner with great instincts.  He is a good fielder in center with an average arm. 

32. Colorado Rockies: Tim Wheeler OF Sacramento State

Kyle Gibson is rumored here but I’m not quite buying it.  Although, interesting move for the Rockies, if it happens, more on that later… again, if it happens.  Wheeler makes sense as the BPA and a college player; remember what I said about the Rockies and college players?  Wheeler makes good contact, with some power at times, and has plus speed.  He also has an average arm, but plus range in center.  That’s the first round. 

Compensation Round A

Now that we’re done with the first round, the blurbs are going to be much shorter and to the point. 

33. Seattle Mariners : Matt Davidson 3B Yucaipa HS (California )

Davidson has some of the greatest power potential in the draft, but like Borchering may have to move off first.  Personally, I think he can stay at third, though.  Seattle tends to lean college, but Davidson’s power bat may be too much to pass up and this pick would continue a stellar draft for the Mariners. 

34. Colorado Rockies : Alex Wilson RHP Texas A&M

The Rockies pick for a third time and I have them once again taking a college right hander.  Wilson, however, is not much like their first pick Mike Leake.  He has a mid 90s fastball, a sometimes plus slider he throws in the mid 80s a curveball and changeup, although the latter two aren’t nearly a useful as the first two.  Wilson pitched from the Texas A&M bullpen the second half of the season, but he still profiles as a starter with a pretty high ceiling. 

35. Arizona Diamondbacks : Brett Jackson OF California

Jackson is another personal fav.  He has a lot of raw power and some hitting ability, but strikes out a lot.  He also is an above-average runner.  He has a plus arm and is a decent fielder in center. 

36. Los Angeles Dodgers : Madison Younginer RHP Mauldin HS (South Carolina )

The Dodgers didn’t have a first round pick, so should go for a lot of upside with this pick… how about Younginer, who was a reliever in high school, but will be tried out as a starter in pro ball.  He has a mid 90s fastball and projection. 

37. Toronto Blue Jays : Jared Mitchell OF Louisiana State University

  Mitchell is one of the very best athletes in the draft, and was a possibility for the Astros in round one.  His ceiling is a Carl Crawford type outfielder with more power. 

38. Chicago White Sox : Rich Poythress 1B Georgia

  Poythress is one of the best pure hitters in the draft.  Again I opt against the toolsy OF rumors and I really don’t know why. 

39. Milwaukee Brewers : Tommy Joseph C Horizon HS (Arizona )

Joseph has enormous raw power and a chance to play behind the plate, with a plus arm.  He seems like a fit for the Brewers to me. 

40. Los Angeles Angels : Reymond Fuentes OF Puerto Rico

Fuentes is one of the toolsy outfielders the White Sox are after.  However, I think he’s a better fit for the Angels. 

41. Arizona Diamondbacks: Mychal Givens SS Plant HS (Florida)

Givens throws 97 mph off a mound, but it seems like most teams now like him as a high upside HS shortstop.  Is he a possible five-tooler?

42. Los Angeles Angels: Nick Franklin SS Lake Brantley HS (Florida)

  I really like this pick.  Franklin does just about everything well, with great makeup and the ability to stay at short long term. 

43. Cincinnati Reds : Marc Krauss 3B/OF Ohio

I don’t know that much about Krauss, he is one of the college ranks’ best power hitters , that’s about it.  I just love the prospect of the Ohio to Ohio connection here. 

44. Texas Rangers : Everett Williams OF McCallum HS (Texas )

Williams is another toolsy outfielder, with good power potential and speed.  The Astros were at one time considering him in the first, but have since soured on him a little. 

45. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jason Kipnis OF Arizona State

Arizona will take guys from Arizona State, they would love Leake, and Kipnis will sign for slot, an essential for teams with so many early picks.  Kipnis has about average tools across the board. 

46. Minnesota Twins : Sam Dyson RHP South Carolina

Dyson is a draft-eligible sophomore (Drew Storen is too actually), which means he has added leverage and could potentially be tougher to sign as a result.  He has a mid 90s fastball and mid 80s slider. 

47. Milwaukee Brewers: Kentrail Davis OF Tennessee

Davis is also a draft-eligible sophomore, he was supposed to be a first rounder at the start of the season, but was only ok.  Many believe he would benefit greatly from a junior season.  Davis could have a good power/speed combo, but some think he won’t be able to play center in the future, hurting his value. 

48. Los Angeles Angels: Kyle Gibson RHP Missouri

Here’s where I have Gibson.  It’s really just a stab in the dark.  Many think Gibson will still find his way in the first round, but I don’t really want to see a team waste a pick.  The Angels have money, multiple picks and are in need of great value.  When healthy, Gibson throws a low 90s/high 80s fastball with one of the best sliders in the draft and above-average changeup with above-average command. 

49. Pittsburgh Pirates : Tony Sanchez C Boston College

Tony Sanchez is the top college catcher, and is unlikely to fall this far, but he could.  If he does, it would work out greatly for the Pirates, who were considering him for the first round.  Sanchez has some hit ability, some power, average speed, a decent arm and good skills behind the plate.  He’s a prospect you shrug your shoulders at, because, other than his ability to stay behind the plate, no tool really stands out, which is probably why he’s slipped in my mock.  But, those tools in a catcher are very useful.  The Pirates like to take college players, they could use a catcher in their system (who couldn’t) and Sanchez would be the BPA here.  That’s the first sandwich round.

26 More Picks I'm banking on...

51. Seattle Mariners: Kyle Heckathorn RHP Kennesaw State
52. and 83. San Diego Padres: Ryan Jackson SS Miami and Jeff Kobernus 2B California
I'm not distinquishing which I like in the second and which I like in the third, so if either go at either, I'm counting it.  Kobernus reminds me of Matt Antonelli, while Jackson is Adam Everett, great defense, possibly little to no offense. 
54. Baltimore Orioles: Stephen Perez SS Gulliver Prep (Florida)
55. San Francisco Giants: Brody Colvin RHP HS Louisiana
56. Los Angeles Dodgers: Jake Marisneck OF HS California
59. Colorado Rockies: Blake Smith OF California
61. Chicago White Sox: Billy Hamilton OF/SS HS Mississippi
Here's where I'll finally take that toolsy outfielder. 
62. Texas Rangers: Zach Van Rosenberg RHP HS Louisiana
64. Arizona Diamondbacks: Kent Mathes OF Alabama
Mathes should be a hot commodity seeing how he has no leverage, being a senior and all, a team with multiple picks, the D'backs, could use the financial relief they'd get by taking him.  Plus he's got the talent to be a high pick. 
66. Florida Marlins: Dane Williams RHP HS Florida
67. St. Louis Cardinals: Randal Grichuk OF HS Texas
68. Toronto Blue Jays: Brooks Raley LHP/OF Texas A&M
69. Houston Astros: David Renfroe SS HS Mississippi
Remember Derek Dietrich!!!
72. New York Mets: Brian Goodwin OF HS North Carolina
73. Milwaukee Brewers: David Holmberg RHP HS Florida
75. Philadelphia Phillies: Todd Glaesman OF HS Texas
76. New York Yankees: Steve Matz RHP HS New York
78. Tampa Bay Rays: LeVon Washington OF HS Florida
85. Baltimore Orioles: Chris Owings SS HS South Carolina
96. Los Angeles Dodgers: Bryan Berglund RHP HS California
98. St. Louis Cardinals: Robbie Shields SS/2B Florida Southern
99. Toronto Blue Jays: Bryan Morgado LHP Tennessee
107. Boston Red Sox: Mike Belfiore RHP Boston College
111. Houston Astros: Jonathan Walsh C HS Texas
At some point. Los Angeles Angels: Trayce Thompson OF HS California

Those 26 picks bring up to a grand total of 75, enjoy the draft.
Posted on: December 28, 2008 11:47 pm
Edited on: December 28, 2008 11:52 pm
 

Top 15 Prospects: NL West

Next Up: My National League Review, then onward to the American League which I would love to have done before Spring Training.

NL West Top Prospects Team Rankings

I would just like to say that these Team Rankings are based on my top 15 prospect lists only, not the state of the organizations entire farm system. The numbers next to each team’s names is the amount of points they scored in my ranking system. The highest possible score is 150. It should also be noted that you cannot take the below “scores” and compare them to that of a NL Central or NL East team, this is because the scores are relative only to the other teams in its division. My next post will be a review of the top prospect lists of the entire National League, and there I will have a ranking of all NL teams.

5. Arizona Diamondbacks 44

Only Jarrod Parker made the top 25 list [below], although Daniel Schlereth would be one of the next three guys on, and he [Schlereth], along with Gerardo Parra made the second all-prospect team. This is, probably, the worst compilation of a team’s top 15 prospects I have ranked thus far. Only the top three prospects (Parker, Schlereth, and Parra) project to be productive major leaguers. It was only a few years ago when the Diamondback’s farm was one of the best in baseball but, since then, guys like Justin Upton, Chris Young, and Max Scherzer have graduated to the majors, and others like Brett Anderson, Carlos Gonzalez, and Greg Smith have been traded away, also they received no promising prospects when they traded Jose Valverde to the Astros – and Astros fans everywhere, including here on this blog, thank you – Juan Gutierrez is not a “promising prospect”. Luckily the Diamondbacks have a good young team right now, and do not need many more pieces, in fact, Schlereth, and Parker may be enough. That will give the organization a little time to improve the farm.

4. Las Angeles Dodgers 78

A tough ranking, I know. The Dodgers have three stellar pitching prospects in Scott Elbert, Ethan Martin, and James McDonald – not to mention Clayton Kershaw who just graduated to the majors in the later part of last season. They also have Chris Withrow, and Josh Lindblom, who both have the potential to become very good pitching prospects prospects. The Dodgers also have a couple of solid hitting prospects, as well, in Ivan DeJesus and Andrew Lambo. However, the Dodgers lack the kind of depth the Rockies, and Padres have.

3. Colorado Rockies 97

I love Dexter Fowler, who happens to be the best position prospect in the division. The emergence of Jhoulys Chacin gives the Rockies a second top five prospect (in the division). After those two, however, the talent level drops off a bit. Wilin Rosario and Mike McKenry are very intriguing catcher prospect, and Christian Friedrich is a future middle of the rotation pitcher. What sets the Rockies apart from the Dodgers is their abundance of high mid-level prospects. Such as: Eric Young Jr., Darin Holcomb, Hector Gomez, Chris Nelson, and Charles Blackmon. All of whom will never become big league stars but, most of them should be productive major leaguers at some point I their careers. I cannot, however, say the same about the Dodgers’ mid-level prospects, guys like Austin Gallagher, Josh Bell, and Cole St. Clair.

2. San Diego Padres 98

The Padres just edge out the Rockies for this spot. This is a little surprising, seeing as how I ranked the Padres best prospect, Mat Latos, the worst of any prospect ranked as his team’s best. However, the Padres have several other top tier prospects to add to the high upside Latos. Guys like Kellen Kulbacki, Kyle Blanks, Will Inman, and Cedric Hunter bolster that group. The Padres have the second most prospects in the NL West’s top 25 with seven prospects. The Padres also have an impressive group of mid-level prospects in players like Mitch Canham, Nick Schmidt, Jaff Decker, James Darnell, and Drew Cumberland.

1. San Francisco Giants 133

Without a doubt the Giants top the division. The Giants have eight of their prospects making the top 25 list, and seven of them made the First NL West all-prospect team. The Giants have a ton of top tier prospects, as I ranked five of them in the top ten in the division. The Giants also have good balance, with a couple of high quality pitchers in Bumgarner and Alderson, and a number of productive hitters in Nate Shierholtz, Nick Noonan, Buster Posey, and Conor Gillaspie.

If you are interested in seeing a more in depth look for any of these teams, just check my archives, or go to my blogs homepage, and scroll down.

NL West Top 25 Prospects

25. Conor Gillaspie 3B/2B SF

I really like Gillaspie as either a third or second basemen with a high batting average, and at least solid defense.

24. Allan Dykstra 1B SD

You have to like Dyksta’s bat with 20-30 homerun potential, and above average plate discipline. He also is not going to hurt a team defensively.

23. Henry Sosa RHSP SF

Sosa has great stuff – with his 97 mph fastball and above average curveball – but the lack of command, and unimpressive numbers at his age and level concern me.

22. Andrew Lambo 1B/OF LAD

I will admit, I may have him a little too low but, I do not totally buy into him as an outfielder yet. I also think his chance of being a bust is still high, and he has to shore up that 3:1 K to BB ratio. He is young, and has a lot of upside though, very high ceiling.

21. Cedric Hunter OF SD

Maybe Hunter’s tools are a little too close to average to be higher than Lambo but, I think his bust potential is much lower, and I like his 1:1 K to BB ratio at the age of 20.

20. Matt Antonelli 2B SD

I still like him. High walk rates – 1:1 K to BB ratio – above average defensively, 20-30 SBs a year, some power potential – could hit 20 homeruns, probably will hit somewhere in the 10-15 range. Very disappointing 2008, look for him to bounce back in spring training to become the Padres everyday second basemen in 2009.

19. James McDonald RHSP LAD

Will Inman or James McDonald? McDonald throws a low 90s fastball, and a 12-6 curveball which he uses as an out pitch. He is major league ready, and will become a solid number four starter next season.

18. Kyle Blanks 1B SD

Blanks hit 20 homeruns in 2008, and he still has more power in his tank. I may have him rated to low, like I did for Lambo – what is it with me not liking big power 1B/LF guys? He is a decent athlete for his massive size but, still below average defensively.

17. Will Inman RHSP SD

I really like Inman, and like his 2008 stats better, I may have even over rated him because of them. Inman’s stuff is not very impressive throwing a 90 mph fastball, and low 70s/high 60s curveball, his stuff his pretty deceptive, though, and fools hitters – which is all that matters. I think his makeup, and pitchibility are enough to make him a number three starter.

16. Christian Friedrich LHSP COL

I love this guy. He throws three major league average pitches in his fastball, cutter, and plus curveball, and also had a great debut to pro ball.

15. Wilin Rosario C COL

Great defensive catcher with a strong arm – throwing out 46% of would be base stealers. Rosario also has some offensive upside with plus power potential, and hit well overall in the Rookie League last season. He has the potential to be an elite catcher.

14. Ivan DeJesus SS/2B LAD

DeJesus is an above average offensive minded middle infielder. He has great hitting ability, with good plate patience, lacking power; he also has enough speed to steal 20 bases most seasons.

13. Ethan Martin RHSP LAD

2008 first round pick, Martin throws three above average pitches in his fastball, power curve, and splitter. He is very athletic for a pitcher, and garnered scout’s attention as both a pitcher, and third basemen. He has future number two written on him.

12. Kellen Kulbacki OF SD

Kulbacki hit .300/.400/.500+ last season, and shows no signs of slowing down. Sure, he is nothing spectacular defensively, and will probably play left his entire career; his bat has been playing very well. Next season in double A will be a good measure of what he could be in the majors.

11. Nick Noonan 2B SF

Great defender at second – his weak arm prevents will prevent him from playing short. Noonan profiles as a top of the order hitter, he has above average contact ability, and capable of stealing more than 30 bases a year, however, he really has to work on his plate patience.

10. Nate Schierholtz OF SF

Schierholtz is an average corner outfielder offensively, and above average defensively, with a canon of an arm.

9. Mat Latos RHSP SD

Latos depends on his plus mid 90s fastball but, is now starting to mix in his “knuckle” curve which grades as above average, or possibly plus, in the future. Statistically he was right on track in his half season last summer. Latos could be a top 5 guy – on this list – next season if he puts up good numbers over a full season in 2009.

8. Scott Elbert LHP LAD

Elbert just edges Latos because he is major league ready, and has a better track record; however, Latos has the higher ceiling, especially if Elbert ends up in the bullpen for good. Scott still has top of the rotation stuff, with his plus fastball and slider combo but, due to injuries the Dodgers have him in the bullpen – for now.

7. Angel Villalona 1B SF

Villalona is very young and very undisciplined – recording a K:BB ratio of 6.5:1 in 2008. However, he does have plus plus power potential, and has already started to show some of it but, his power numbers will rise, if he improves his discipline.

6. Tim Alderson RHSP SF

Alderson has great command, and pairs it with a couple of plus pitches in his low-mid 90s fastball, and power curve.

5. Buster Posey C SF

Posey is a plus defender, and has a lot of upside offensively. He will hit for a high average, and average power could develop eventually. He is a good athlete behind the plate. I had him as the number one pick in my mock draft back in June but, instead fell to number five.

4. Jhoulys Chacin RHSP COL

I really like Chacin, he led the minors in wins in 2008. He throws a mid 90s sinking fastball, and plus changeup. He is a number two starter.

3. Jarrod Parker RHSP ARI

Parker is the first of two pitchers on this list to possess a plus plus fastball. He throws his in the mid-high 90s, and has great command of it. He also throws a slider, curveball, and changeup, the first of which could be a plus pitch as well.

2. Dexter Fowler OF COL

I really debated making Fowler the top guy in the NL West but, ultimately decided on Bumgarner instead. Fowler is a 5-tooler who plays exceptional defense, and will be a well above average centerfielder offensively, as well.

1. Madison Bumgarner LHSP SF

Bumgarner, like Parker, throws a plus plus fastball in the mid-high 90s – and he could add a couple ticks of velocity still. It [his fastball] also has a ton of late tailing action. Bumgarner has also messed around with a couple different breaking pitches (curveball, and slider) but, as of yet none of them really stand out. Bumgarner has ace potential if he can establish his secondary stuff.

First Team All NL West Prospects

C Buster Posey SF
1B Angel Villalona SF
2B Nick Noonan SF
SS Ivan DeJesus LAD
3B Conor Gillaspie SF
CF Dexter Fowler COL
RF Nate Schierholtz SF
LF Kellen Kulbacki SD
SP1 Madison Bumgarner SF
SP2 Jarrod Parker ARI
SP3 Jhoulys Chacin COL
SP4 Tim Alderson SF
SP5 Mat Latos SD
RP Scott Elbert LAD
HM Allan Dykstra 1B SD

No hard decisions here. The outfield even works perfectly for a RF, CF, LF. The pitching staff is full of aces. Even with Elbert in the bullpen.

Second Team All NL West Prospects

C Wilin Rosario COL
1B Kyle Blanks SD
2B Matt Antonelli SD
SS Hector Gomez COL
3B Darin Holcomb COL
CF Cedric Hunter SD
RF Gerardo Parra ARI
LF Andrew Lambo LAD
SP1 Ethan Martin LAD
SP2 Will Inman SD
SP3 James McDonald
SP4 Henry Sosa SF
SP5 Josh Lindblom LAD
RP Daniel Schlereth ARI
HM Mike McKenry C COL

There is a significant drop off at all positions except LF, 1B, and possibly 2B, and C. The pitching staff likely only has one top of the rotation guy in Ethan Martin, the rest either have lower ceilings (McDonald, Inman, Lindblom) or have big bust potential (Sosa). Holcomb and Gomez make the list due to a lack of depth on the left side of the infield.

Posted on: November 22, 2008 1:05 pm
Edited on: November 22, 2008 9:31 pm
 

Top 15 Prospects: Arizona Diamondbacks

After a prolonged time spent on the NL Central I finally move on to the NL West. I would like to remind everybody that "top 15 prospect" articles for any NL East, or NL central team can be found below, or by clicking the "Top 15 Prospects" tag.

I created this blog series to get the casual fan acquainted with their favorite team's top prospects. My rankings are constructed by me using a variety of factors: what a prospect's potential can be, how the prospect has performed in the past, how well the prospect performs in 2008, age, and the minor league level (MLL) the prospect is currently playing at. The success of teams like the Tampa Bay Rays, and the World Series champions, the Philadelphia Phillies has stressed the importance of having a good farm system, and impact prospects. So, I have made it my task to pull out the top 15 prospects of every organization, and analyze them for you.

One thing I like is interaction from different members, and readers. So, if you do read the article, please just leave a comment at the bottom. I am perfectly ok with the comment ranging from your appreciation, to total disgust of my negative thoughts about your favorite team's future. I am not an expert, and am bound to make some mistakes, so if you see one point it out. I would like to this blog to have a forum style atmosphere, if you feel I am missing a prospect, or overvaluing/undervaluing a prospect, tell me, and tell me why you think so, also if you have any questions leave them for me, and I will answer to the best of my ability.

Arizona Diamondbacks Top 15 Prospects

1. Jarrod Parker RHSP Age: 20 MLL: A-

Parker takes over for Max Scherzer at the top of this list. In 2008 Parker pitched 118 innings with an ERA of 3.44, and striking out 117 batters. I am a little disappointed he did not move beyond low A, but Parker is only 20, and could start 2009 in AA. Parker has excellent stuff with a mid-high 90s fastball, which he has good command of. He also throws a possible plus slider, which he tosses in the mid 80s, a curveball he throws in the high 70s, and a developing changeup which should be an average pitch in the future. Parker could become an ace in the future – and at worst he is a great number three – could you imagine a D’backs rotation featuring four legitimate aces in Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Scherzer, and Parker?

2. Daniel Schlereth LHRP Age: 22 MLL: A-/R

I do not like to rank relievers this high, but the Diamondbacks are pretty thin in the farm these days and Schlereth is going to make an impact on the major league team. Schlereth throws a live fastball up to 94 mph, but his best pitch is his power fastball, which may be a plus, plus pitch in the future. Schlereth was great in his pro debut – which was 12 innings – totally an ERA of 1.50, and 20 strikeouts. Schlereth is definitely a late innings reliever, but whether he is best suited for the eighth inning or in a closers role is yet to be seen.

3. Gerardo Parra OF Age: 21 MLL: AA/A+

Parra hits for a good average - .286 in 2008 – and has good speed, but still is lacking power. He also has pretty good plate discipline, with a K:BB ratio of less than 2:1. Parra is an average fielder, with a slightly above-average arm, which may best be suited for a corner, rather than centerfield. I have been high on Parra in the past, but he has only produced limited power, which most likely only going to equate to doubles in the big leagues. He is 21, and the power could come, but if it does not Parra will only be a slightly below-average everyday outfielder.

4. Wade Miley LHSP Age: 22 MLL: a

Miley is a 2008 draftee – like Schlereth – Miley only pitched eleven innings in short-season A ball over the summer. Miley throws his fastball between 87, and 92 mph with good sinking action. He also throws a plus two-plane breaking curveball, and a changeup. Miley is inconsistent with the command of his fastball – but, does not have that problem with his curveball. Miley is probably a back-end of the rotation starter.

5. Cesar Valdez RHSP Age: 23 MLL: AA/A+

Valdez is the best major league ready pitcher in the Diamondbacks system. In 2008 he pitched 160 innings striking out 140 batters, and finishing the season with a 3.14 ERA. He does not, however, have overpowering stuff. He throws his fastball in the high 80s, on occasion touching 90 mph. His two best pitches are his above average changeup, and curveball. He profiles at the back-end of the rotation.

6. Reynaldo Navarro SS Age: 19 MLL: R

Navarro is a young hitter who repeated rookie ball in 2008. He is great defensively, with excellent range, and an average arm – maybe a little below average arm. Navarro has some power, which may grade as average in the future, but is still raw as a hitter. In 2008 he hit .258, with a .323 OBP. He also stole 17 bases, despite bad base running instincts, and tallied a K:BB ratio of 3:1 – not good by any means, but he is still young, and raw offensively. Navarro could be an average defensive minded shortstop with some pop, or he could be a utility infielder, either way I think he is a major leaguer.

7. Bryan Augenstein RHSP Age: 22 MLL: A

Augenstein pitched 131 innings in 2008, with a 2.74 ERA, and 99 Ks. His velocity has jump a bit, and now throws his fastball up 94 mph, and consistently keeps it in the low 90s. His secondary pitchers, a slider and changeup, are below average, and are at best only average in the future. He has great command of all three of his pitches, though. Augustein can be a very solid number four or five starter because of his plus command.

8. Collin Cowgill OF Age: 22 MLL: A-

Cowgill had a pretty good 2008 season. He hit .266, with a .366 OBP, and .845 OPS (on base + slugging). He also hit 12 home runs in 280 at bats (22-28 over the course of a full season). His K:BB ratio was a mediocre 2:1. Cowgill is average defensively with the versatility to play all three outfield positions, he has an average arm. Cowgill grades average across the spectrum, for the most part. Assuming he sticks at center he can be an average everyday centerfielder.

9. Josh Collmenter RHSP Age: 22 MLL: A-

Collmenter throws a deceptive fastball in the high 80s-low 90s with cutting action. He also throws a big loop curveball and a changeup, he also will throw a knuckleball, and eephus pitch once in a great while. In 145 innings, in 2008, he had a 3.41 ERA, and struck out 123 batters. His stuff profiles him as a middle reliever, but he is a great competitor so, he may compete for a rotation spot one day if he continues to find success in the minors.

10. Jaime D’Antona 3B Age: 26 MLL: AAA

D’Antona turned to fire in 2008, hitting .365, with a .405 OBP, and an OPS of 1.009! He also hit 21 homeruns, while producing a K:BB ratio slightly over 2:1. He is an older prospect, yes, but, he will get a shot in spring training to prove last season was not a fluke.

11. Brooks Brown RHSP Age: 23 MLL: AA

Brooks finished 2008 by pitching 144 innings with a 4.18 ERA, and 112 strikeouts. His velocity dropped a couple mph, as he was throwing in the high 80s, and low 90s. His slider is his best pitch, but his slider is below-average. He could be a fifth starter, or middle reliever.

12. Ryne White 1B Age: 22 MLL: A-/R

Another 2008 draftee, White was taken in the fourth round of June’s draft. He finished the year with a .286 batting average, and .358 OBP. He hit 7 HRs in 287 ABs, and had a K:BB ratio of under 2:1. He is a short first baseman, which is bit of an oddity, and may limit his homerun potential. If the power does come, however, he can be a starter in the majors. Next season, if he plays a full season, I would like to see close to 20 homers, and a K:BB ratio near closer to 1:1 than 2:1.

13. Barry Enright RHSP Age: 20 MLL: A+

Enright pitched in 164 innings in 2008, his first full season. He had an ERA of 4.44, while striking out 143 batters. He lacks a true out pitch, relying on his command of his fastball to get batters out. He also throws a slider, and changeup, but neither is a plus pitch. He has seen some success in pro ball, so I do not see hwy he can’t be a major league reliever, it may be too much to say he could ever start for a big league team.

14. Bryan Shaw RHRP Age: 21 MLL: A-/R

Shaw throws a mid-low 90s fastball, as well as a hard slider. He did not have much success in his first stint in pro baseball, but it is too early to make that a knock on his back-end of the rotation potential.

15. John Whitesell 1B Age: 26 MLL: AAA

Why not? The Diamondbacks need a fifteenth prospect, and it was either Whitesell who tore up AAA – more on that in a sentence, or two – or, Wes Roemer a meh pitcher who is best suited for the bullpen or, Pedro Ciraco who had a K:BB ratio of 4:1. Whitesell hit .328 in 2008 with 26 homeruns, he is probably going to get a chance in spring training, or at least at some point in 2009 to see if he can hit in the majors.

Strengths: How about Jarrod Parker… and Max Scherzer – although he is not a prospect anymore. The Diamondbacks have two potential aces in those two, and they have Webb and Haren in front of them, so the rotation is set for a little while. Daniel Schlereth is a great LEFT-HANDED reliever at the back-end of the bullpen.

Weaknesses: After Parker, and Schlereth there are not many big impact prospects. They have a few good prospects, who may or may not become viable major leaguers, but they lack a true second tier of prospects. Due to recent trades, most notably the Dan Haren trade – which sent Carlos Gonzalez, and Brian Anderson to the A’s, along with others – the Diamondbacks have gone from one of the best farm systems, to one of the worst.

Next Up: The Rockies

 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com