Posted on: June 13, 2009 2:56 pm
C - Joe Mauer Min
How could it be anyone else?
1B - Justin Morneau Min
Best numbers among AL first basemen, eat is Teixeira. This is despite rare appearances on ESPN.
2B - Robinson Cano NYY
Best numbers among AL second basemen, better than Kinsler, better than Pedroia.
3B - Evan Longoria TB
SS - Jason Bartlett TB
Better numbers than Jeter despite less at-bats.
OF - Jason Bay Bos
He is far and away the best outfielder in the AL this year.
OF - Carl Crawford TB
There are probably five or more guys worthy of the final two outfield spots. I like Crawford because of his average and speed.
OF - Adam Jones Bal
Jones is already overshadowed by the rest of the league, being an Oriole. But, he is also overshadowed by the popular Nick Markakis and rookie Matt Wieters. This is my subtle nod to Jones' performance this season, and further proof the Orioles made a killing in the Bedard trade.
C - Brian McCann Atl
This is such a pathetic group, but someone does have to start, right? I think Brian McCann is the most talented, so I closed my eyes and penciled in his bubble.
1B - Albert Pujols StL
Year in and year out this position is so close, and so many of the players are deserving. I want to make note of the great performances from Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder, but Pujols is clearly at the top.
2B - Chase Utley Phi
One of those rare occurrances where numbers = popularity.
3B - Ryan Zimmerman Was
David Wright's numbers are slightly better, but if Zimmerman played for a better team his would blow away the competitions. Plus you have to give Zimmerman for signing an extension with the worst team in baseball. Could Zimmerman, Strasburg and Bryce Harper make Washington competitive? Even I have my doubts.
SS - Miguel Tejada Hou
The numbers are very close between Tejada and Han Ram, but if Tejada is the All-Star starter, his trade value may go up, right?
OF - Raul Ibanez Phi
There is no better hitter in baseball this year.
OF - Carlos Lee Hou
He has All-Star starter's numbers.
OF - Hunter Pence Hou
His numbers are probably 5th best among outfielders, but he's the best right fielder in baseball, and his perpetual joy on the baseball field would be awesome to see in the All-Star game.
Posted on: June 8, 2009 9:16 pm
Edited on: June 9, 2009 3:44 pm
Hello, welcome to my 2009 MLB Mock Draft. This is where I will try to predict every pick for the first several rounds. With the recent news of Kyle Gibson’s stress fracture and other stock changes, I have just completely remade my mock draft, before I even released the first version. I had originally planned to mock all the day one picks, the first one hundred and eleven. But, because I have had to change many picks, I am not sure I will be able to get that many done by the draft tomorrow. I will however, mock as many picks as possible and provide sufficient information on each pick. I will continue working on this and update it, as I finish each round. My goal is to predict 20% of the picks I mock. I hope those of you who read my write up enjoy, please comment, and come back tomorrow for my thoughts on the draft itself. Later in the week, I will be reviewing the draft, so look for that as well.
Scouting reports come from a number of sites, most prominently Baseball America, PGCrosscheckers.com, John Sickel’s site minorleagueball.com and milb.com.
There are a couple places in the draft I want to point out now, for when I come back to grade - how many picks I got right - my mock. Where ever a team is picking back-to-back, notably Arizona at 16 and 17 and the Angels at 24 and 25, if I guess a guy at one of those two spots and he is picked by that team at the other spot, I’m counting it. Also, in the first round supplemental, I am counting any player I guess the correct team for. If Nick Franklin goes to the Angels in the supp. no matter what pick, I’m counting it. I think that’s fair, right? Anyways, enjoy.
I have decided I am going to post what I have on the blog, and add to it, as it gets done.
1. Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg RHP San Diego State
Strasburg is the number one pick of the 2009 MLB draft. My official prediction for how much he signs for… $21.5 million. Strasburg is the best prospect in the draft era, and would fit into a big league rotation immediately. I would love for the Nationals to send him to AAA, so I can see him in Syracuse, and give you all my own scouting report of him. He throws his fastball in the high 90s and can touch 103 mph. He also throws a hammer breaking ball in the low-to-mid 80s and a changeup he throws in the low 80s. I worry a little; I think its possible Strasburg blows out his arm at some point, a la the guy a lot of people compare him to, Mark Prior. With a comp. of Mark Prior, who wouldn’t worry? Anyways I seem to be in the minority on this.
2. Seattle Mariners: Dustin Ackley OF North Carolina
If Strasburg is on the first tier of prospects by himself, I would say Ackley is on the second tier, all by himself. He is clearly the best hitter, having “plus, plus hittability”, according to milb.com’s draft report. He adds plus speed and range in centerfield. Ackley has dispelled any thoughts that he wouldn’t be able to play centerfield, following Tommy John surgery last summer, which had him saddled at first. The main question on Ackley is how much power he’ll hit for, and although I don’t think he needs too much to be an effective major league hitter, he certainly hit 20-30 homeruns. There was some talk about the Mariners wanning on Ackley and considering Aaron Crow or Tanner Scheppers, but I don’t buy it, Ackley’s the guy. What I think the Mariners are getting in Ackley is a future no. 3 hitter, who is going to play centerfield, hit .300+ with a .400 OBP, and be a 20-20 guy (Curtis Granderson better OBP?), not bad, eh?
3. San Diego Padres: Donavan Tate OF Cartersville HS (Georgia)
After the first two picks things get very interesting, very fast. It seems as though the Padres have narrowed this selection to three guys: Tate, Aaron Crow and Mike Minor. Although, if I were running this draft, I would take Tyler Matzek, who I believe is the third best prospect in the draft. Crow would also be a good pick, but Minor is a clear overdraft. If Ackley falls, the Padres WILL take him. Tate has, perhaps, the highest ceiling in the draft. However, he is also going to cost a lot of money, close to six million? Tate has a strong commitment to North Carolina, where he would play both football and baseball – his father Lars Tate was an NFL player. There are also questions about Tate’s hit-ability. I like Tate at this spot for two reasons: 1. He’s the guy available with the most upside and San Diego’s system could really use some upside, particularly up the middle 2. If Tate doesn’t go number three, I don’t know where he goes, so I instead of forcing a headache upon myself, I’ve decided to take the risk, along with the Padres, and take Tate.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Aaron Crow RHP Fort Worth (University of Missouri)
As previously stated, I’m fairly certain about the first two picks, however, every other pick is far from certain. Rumors have swirled around the Pirates, involving a sign-ability pick here. Names discussed include: Tony Sanchez and Bobby Borchering. The Pirates would like to save money because they are rumored to be the favorites to sign Dominican Miguel Angel Sano a SS, the rumored price is four million. Apart from those rumors the Pirates are known to like college pitchers and the top arm on my board is Aaron Crow, who has little negotiating power and should sign around slot. If Crow’s name sounds familiar, it should, he was the number nine pick in last year’s draft, and went to an independent league, along with Tanner Scheppers, after failing to sign, I had him going number ten to my Astros. Crow throws a low-to-mid 90s sinking fastball, a plus slider and an at least average changeup, which is his biggest improvement from last year. Personally, I like Crow and think he has front of the rotation upside, as a reliever he could pitch in the major’s later this season and could be in a rotation next.
5. Baltimore Orioles: Tyler Matzek LHP Capistrano Valley HS (California)
As previously stated, Matzek is the third prospect on my board, and although Zach Wheeler seems to be the popular pick here of late, I still like Matzek – and I love the idea of Wheeler seven to his home state Braves. Matzek throws his fastball up to 95 mph, but sits in the low 90s. He throws two at least average breaking balls, a curveball he throws in the mid 70s and a slider in the mid 80s. He also throws a changeup, but hasn’t needed it yet. Matzek may not be a true no. one starter type, but he has good 2/3 starter upside, with much more polish than you would expect from a HS pitcher. The Orioles usually draft the best player available (BPA) and don’t shy away from guy with perceived signability problems. I do think the Orioles would love to add a good position player to their system, but there is no one of value here, so the Orioles will be “forced” to add to their already stellar crop of pitchers.
6. San Francisco Giants: Tanner Scheppers RHP St. Paul (Fresno State)
Scheppers is a tough guy to slot in. Many experts have him falling out of the top ten and in some cases out of the first round, because of fear for that same shoulder problem that made him fall last year. However, because I am mocking through the first supplemental, I would hate to have to guess how far Scheppers is going to fall, I mean, I already have to do that for Kyle Gibson, so I’m not going to torture myself and do it for Scheppers too. I like this fit. Although, I haven’t seen many people agree with me, that’s ok though. Scheppers has put together a good showing in St. Paul and should be close to major league ready. He profiles as a top of the rotation starter, but does come with injury risk. He throws his fastball in the mid 90s and can put “cut and sink” onto it (according to milb.com). He also throws a power curve and changeup. Like the Orioles, I think the Giants would love to add a bat and could be a possibility for Tate should he fall past the Padres, but without sufficient value on my board the Giants will also add to their “stellar crop of pitchers”. Jacob Turner and Zach Wheeler are also candidates.
7. Atlanta Braves: Zack Wheeler RHP East Paulding HS (Georgia)
I hope the Brave appreciate me dodging two bullets (the Orioles and Giants) to deliver them their prized Georgia arm. Wheeler was the guy I liked at the beginning of the year for the Astros, but since, has had his stock rise more than just about anyone in the draft. Wheeler has a perfect pitcher’s body at 6’4 170, and also fits Atlanta’s mold as a prep local product, as an added bonus, he’ll sign for slot! Wheeler already throws up to 95 mph and still has plenty of projection. He also throws an above average curveball and the makings of an average change. The sky is the limit for Wheeler, who has one of the highest upsides among the HS pitchers in this draft, but he also has some mechanical problems.
8. Cincinnati Reds: Alex White RHP North Carolina
This is where I had Gibson slated for awhile, dubbing him the Yonder Alonso of this draft. However, due to the stress fracture, the Reds are unlikely to take him – although they could – and I don’t have to explain my Gibson = Alonso comparison. White has been up and down, but I still believe he has the highest upside amongst college pitchers NNS (not named Strasburg). I actually really like White and believe he would be a steal here. Leake and Grant Green are also possibilities. White throws a low 90s fastball, which gets up to 95 mph; his 2-seamer has great movement to it. His slider is also a plus pitch, he throws a splitter as an off-speed pitch, as well as a below average curveball.
9. Detroit Tigers: Jacob Turner RHP Westminster Christian Academy (Missouri)
Jacob Turner wants Rick Porcello money, well; why not give him to the team with a Rick Porcello void in their minors? Turner has a large frame at 6-5 220 and is already throwing in the mid-low 90s. He also throws a mid 70s slider. He hasn’t really needed a changeup in high school. Matt Purke is now being rumored
10. Washington Nationals: Chad Jenkins RHP Kennesaw State
Jenkins is a bit of an overdraft, but not too badly, since many think he could go to the Blue Jays at twenty also. The Nationals have also been attached to Mike Trout and others with this pick. The idea being to sign someone at or below slot since Strasburg is going to cost $21.5 million. Jenkins throws his fastballs, two and four seamers, in the low 90s. He adds a low 80s slider and changeup.
11. Colorado Rockies: Mike Leake RHP Arizona State
Leake was the big mover during the college season, as he moved up probably a round. He led division I in a couple statistical categories – so eat it Strasburg. However, Leake profiles as a 3/4 starter, with a high floor. He throws a high 80s/low 90s sinking fastball, he adds a high 70s/low 80s slider and plus changeup. He command is plus, plus. He’s short, but athletic for a pitcher. The last four drafts, 78% of the Rockies’ top 137 picks have been college players, 50% have been college pitchers. Mike Leake is a nice complement to Christian Friedrich (last year’s first rounder), and gives the Rockies a nice trio of advanced pitchers (throwing Jhoulys Chacin into the mix). Plus they need all the pitching help they can get – although all three of the pitchers I listed profile towards the middle of the rotation.
12. Kansas City Royals: Wil Myers C Wesleyan Christian Academy (North Carolina)
After a couple years of paying for high priced talents: Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, etc, the Royals are looking for a bargain at a premium position (C, SS, CF), and rumors include Tony Sanchez, the top college catcher. However, I like the higher upsided (yes, upsided, I like the way it sounds) Myers. Myers has raw power and all the tools to become a solid defensive catcher, with a good arm. He is also very athletic for a catcher, with above-average speed.
13. Oakland Athletics: Grant Green SS Southern California
Before the season, Grant was expected to be one of the first three picks in the draft. However, he has played his way down, as many now question his ability to stay at short, as well as his power. Green does, however, have good hitting ability, and average to above-average speed. His arm is also at least average, leaning above-average slightly. However, (milb.com) he has some trouble ranging up the middle and his power is more line-drive power than anything else, but he could hit 15-20 homeruns. Oakland’s MO is established college players, which makes it Green or Brothers in my book. The A’s are also attached to Donavan Tate, should he fall, and his reported $6 million price tag, so signing Green should be no problem. By the way, I love me some Green. I think he’ll stick at short, and be a near .300 hitter with 15-20 homeruns… that’s enough.
14. Texas Rangers: Shelby Miller HS Brownwood HS (Texas)
If there was a lock this late in the draft, it’d be Miller to the Rangers. It fits there MO, he’s local, it works. He throws in the mid 90s with a good curve in the mid 70s, but he has some command issues. He’s plenty projectable. Let me double check if this makes sense: Texas usually takes the BPA; money shouldn’t be a problem and they like their fire-ballers, yep, Miller does makes sense.
15. Cleveland Indians : Mike Minor LHP Vanderbilt
Mike Minor has been rumored all over the first round, but there is no clear consensus on who that one team is who takes him. The Indians want Miller, but he won’t get there. So, it will be the best college player on their board. The question is who is the top college arm on their board? It could be Minor, Rex Brothers, James Paxton or Eric Arnett. I picked Minor. Mainly because he would fall in my mock if I didn’t put him here (if he doesn’t go here, my prediction is 19 to the Cardinals. Minor is a low ceiling/high floor starter. He throws a low 90s fastball, along with both a slider and curveball, and a good enough changeup. He probably has 4/5 starter upside.
16. Arizona Diamondbacks : Rex Brothers LHP Lipscomb
17. Arizona Diamondbacks: Bobby Borchering 3B Bishop Verot HS (Florida )
Here’s the first pair of D’back picks. They like to go high upside HSers early, followed by college floor. Borchering has one of the best bats in the draft. He is switch hitter with great bat speed and raw power from both sides. Many believe he will have to eventually move to first but, I think he could stay at third. His speed is average or a little below. His arm is about average as well.
Brothers is a guy I like a lot. He throws his fastball in the mid 90s, he also throws a good slider, with a lot of movement, hasn’t thrown his changeup too much. He’s a rare lefty that can dial his fastball up to 96/97 mph and I think his ceiling is 2/3 starter if he develops his changeup.
18. Florida Marlins : Chad James LHP Yukon HS (Oklahoma )
Chad James is the guy I’m hoping falls to the ‘Stros at 21, but it’s unlikely he will as he is coveted by the D’backs, Marlins, Cardinals and Blue Jays. The Marlins develop HS pitching very well, so James makes sense here. If Borchering gets to here, I could see the Marlins taking the in-state third basemen. James is a lefty with a low 90s fastball, he has touched 95 mph. He also throws an above-average power curve and above-average changeup. He has plenty of projection. I seriously don’t know why James isn’t considered one of the elite HS arms, but one team will benefit as a result in the 16-22 range.
19. St. Louis Cardinals : James Paxton LHP Kentucky
Word is the Cardinals are leaning left-handed pitcher, the options being: Minor, Brothers, James and Paxton. One of them will fall, and in this scenario it’s the Boras corp. client, Paxton. Paxton throws in the mid-to-high 90s, along with a hard slider and a change, which isn’t worth praising. I don’t like Paxton, lack of a real changeup, command, questionable mechanics, Boras, but it seems like the Cards do, so he’s the pick.
20. Toronto Blue Jays: Eric Arnett RHP Indiana
This was a tough one. I’ve been hearing college arm. The Jays would have liked Jenkins, Minor or Brothers, but none of them fell. I also think Chad James is an option, although history would show the Jays shy away from HS arms in the early rounds, and Matt Hobgood is still an option. Kyle Gibson, post-injury, has been rumored here and I think Mike Trout or Tim Wheeler are options here. Trout has one of the highest upsides amongst position players and Wheeler is the next best college bat. I went with the college arm route and took Arnett, although I am far less than confident with that pick. Arnett is a 6’5” righty, who throws in the mid 90s, he also throws a slider in the high 70s/low 80s which can get batters out. His changeup needs some work. I’m not in love with this selection, but that’s mostly because I’m not in love with Arnett, who has risen this season, after an increase in velocity. I also am not high on his secondary pitches or command, but he has to go somewhere in the first round… I guess, and he could go as high as 15.
21. Houston Astros: Slade Heathcott LHP/OF Texas HS (Texas)
I have gone over this pick again and again. I have changed my mind many times, and I still have no clue. I have studied Astros drafts, particularly last year’s. I have looked at the pool of names, over-and-over again, but still nothing looks right. What does look right is Chad James. He’d be perfect. He’s the top guy on my wish list, but I really don’t think he’s going to last here, and I decided to adhere to my integrity as a blogger (ha) and have him go earlier. I also like Rex Brothers, but he also will probably be gone. There are other names in consideration here: Matt Hobgood would make sense as the next best HS arm, Jared Mitchell is the best athlete, I call Tim Wheeler “the Jason Castro of this draft”, and I started a recent buzz about Mike Trout. Seriously, I participated in John Sickel’s mock draft on Saturday and took Trout with his pick, and since then, a bunch of people have started talking about Trout to the Astros. I would love to see it, but I’m afraid Houston isn’t taking an OF from New Jersey and people just went to John’s website saw the pick, and liked… maybe I’m just being ethnocentric, I don’t know. Anyways, the guy at thebaseballdraftreport.com said, “ a great tip though for any young mockers out there – go with as many off the wall picks as possible because, on the off chance you get lucky and nail one of them, you’ll be lauded as a prophet. Mock drafts almost work counter to basic human nature as people often forget the bad picks, but clearly remember the good ones.” (By the way I suggest thebaseballdraftreport.com to anyone interested in the draft, lots of good insight) I like this idea. Houston is my favorite team, so I am going to hook them up with one of my favorite draft prospects, Slade Heathcott and actually it could happen... Heathcott has one of the five highest upsides in the draft (among position players). However, he has signability issues and character issues, which is why most teams are considering him for the second and third rounds. The Yankees, among other teams are thinking about nabbing Heathcott in the first, due to the lack of solid options. The Astros are also high on Heathcott, plus the all important, Texas factor. So, why can’t the Astros jump on Heathcott? One thing I can tell you about Bobby Heck and the current Astros draft philosophy is, they do not care about the consensus. They will take whoever they believe to be the BPA, and it could be Heathcott. Look at Jason Castro and Jordan Lyles from last draft? Now go look at how they’re doing in their first full season… Jason Castro, by the way, for all you Astros fans, was called up to AA Corpus Christi and will be ready for Wednesday’s game. Heathcott is a five-tool outfielder. According to milb.com, he has “plus hitting ability”, “plus power to all fields”, above-average speed, plus arm strength and a plus defender. I am going to try hard, to will this pick into reality.
22. Minnesota Twins: Jiovanni Mier SS Bonita HS (California)
The MO on the Twins: HS bats, college arms. Mier is the kind of toolsy player they like and with the first couple of tiers of college pitchers gone; he seems like an obvious choice. Mier is the top HS shortstop amongst a deep class. He has all the defensive tools to stay at short too. He also has some hitting ability, with a little power to go with it.
23. Chicago White Sox: Andrew Oliver LHP Oklahoma State
Oliver throws a mid 90s fastball along with a plus changeup, but he does not really have a breaking pitch yet. He is also a Boras corp. client, but that shouldn’t bother the Chi Sox. The White Sox have, however, been attached to several of the toolsy outfielders still around: Trout, Everett Williams and Reymond Fuentes.
24. Los Angeles Angels : Tyler Skaggs LHP Santa Monica HS (California)
25. Los Angeles Angels : Mike Trout OF Milville HS (New Jersey)
Another back-to-back pick, remember if Skaggs goes 25 or Trout goes 24, I’m still counting it as a correct pick. The Angels, like the D’backs have an abundance of early round pick, so they could do almost anything with them, but based on their philosophy and lack of talent in their system, they’ll go HS, HS, HS, early and often. Skaggs is a California arm. He throws a low 90s fastball, but should add more velocity as he matures; he is 6’5” 180 and offers plenty of projection, and some. Skaggs also throws a plus curveball in the low 70s.
Trout, like I’ve said is one of the ten best bats in the draft and I’ve heard it said that he is the most likely guy in the class to join the 30-30 club. He’s a five-tooler with solid defensive skills and a plus arm.
26. Milwaukee Brewers: Garrett Gould RHP Maize HS Kansas
Gould just looks like a Brewers pick. I get a Jake Odorizzi vibe from him, in fact. He throws his fastball in the low 90s and can get into the mid 90s a little. He also throws a plus curve and a decent enough changeup. Gould also has that all important, no not “Texas factor”, projection thing. He’s 6’4” 190 after all.
27. Seattle Mariners: Drew Storen RHP Stanford
Storen is the top closer in the class, but I think he’ll be drafted as a starter, and the Mariners seem like a team that would do it. He throws his fastball in the low 90s with good movement. He also throws his curve in the low 80s and has an effective changeup. That three pitch mix makes me think starter. The Mariners are big on college players in the draft, by the way.
28. Boston Red Sox: Matt Purke HS Klein HS (Texas)
Purke is easily one of the fifteen best players in the draft, but he wants so much money and there are only so many teams that are going to pay $5 million + for a prospect. Which means someone is going to fall and the likely candidate is Purke. So, some team at the bottom of the draft will luck out, possibly the Red Sox. Purke throws his fastball in the low 90s, touching 95. I’ve said that a lot, I mean, a lot of pitchers throw in the low 90s touching 95. He throws his curve in the high 70s and has a good changeup. He also has good command and a projectable body.
29. New York Yankees: Matt Hobgood RHP Norco HS (California)
New York needs talent and s high school arm as good as Hobgood’s should be tough to pass up. SS/RHP David Renfroe (this year’s Casey Kelly and Slade Heathcott have been rumored here. Hobgood throws his fastball in the low 90s, he also throws a plus curve in the mid 70s, according to milb.com it could be the best curve among HS pitchers in the class. He doesn’t have a changeup though, so he’ll need to work on a third pitch.
30. Tampa Bay Rays: Max Stassi C Yuba City HS (California)
The Rays’ position of need on the farm is at catcher, and with Stassi available need happens to coincide with the BPA. Stassi has great instincts and makeup; he also has all the defensive tools behind the plate and an average arm. His bat should be good and he has some power.
31. Chicago Cubs: AJ Pollock OF Notre Dame
The last four years, 85% of Cubs picks in the top 149 pick have been college players. Pollock happens to be a personal favorite of mine, and it is tough to let him go to the Cubs, but the pick makes sense. Pollock has a very advanced approach at the plate, and has gap power. He is an above-average runner with great instincts. He is a good fielder in center with an average arm.
32. Colorado Rockies: Tim Wheeler OF Sacramento State
Kyle Gibson is rumored here but I’m not quite buying it. Although, interesting move for the Rockies, if it happens, more on that later… again, if it happens. Wheeler makes sense as the BPA and a college player; remember what I said about the Rockies and college players? Wheeler makes good contact, with some power at times, and has plus speed. He also has an average arm, but plus range in center. That’s the first round.
Compensation Round A
Now that we’re done with the first round, the blurbs are going to be much shorter and to the point.
33. Seattle Mariners : Matt Davidson 3B Yucaipa HS (California )
Davidson has some of the greatest power potential in the draft, but like Borchering may have to move off first. Personally, I think he can stay at third, though. Seattle tends to lean college, but Davidson’s power bat may be too much to pass up and this pick would continue a stellar draft for the Mariners.
34. Colorado Rockies : Alex Wilson RHP Texas A&M
The Rockies pick for a third time and I have them once again taking a college right hander. Wilson, however, is not much like their first pick Mike Leake. He has a mid 90s fastball, a sometimes plus slider he throws in the mid 80s a curveball and changeup, although the latter two aren’t nearly a useful as the first two. Wilson pitched from the Texas A&M bullpen the second half of the season, but he still profiles as a starter with a pretty high ceiling.
35. Arizona Diamondbacks : Brett Jackson OF California
Jackson is another personal fav. He has a lot of raw power and some hitting ability, but strikes out a lot. He also is an above-average runner. He has a plus arm and is a decent fielder in center.
36. Los Angeles Dodgers : Madison Younginer RHP Mauldin HS (South Carolina )
The Dodgers didn’t have a first round pick, so should go for a lot of upside with this pick… how about Younginer, who was a reliever in high school, but will be tried out as a starter in pro ball. He has a mid 90s fastball and projection.
37. Toronto Blue Jays : Jared Mitchell OF Louisiana State University
Mitchell is one of the very best athletes in the draft, and was a possibility for the Astros in round one. His ceiling is a Carl Crawford type outfielder with more power.
38. Chicago White Sox : Rich Poythress 1B Georgia
Poythress is one of the best pure hitters in the draft. Again I opt against the toolsy OF rumors and I really don’t know why.
39. Milwaukee Brewers : Tommy Joseph C Horizon HS (Arizona )
Joseph has enormous raw power and a chance to play behind the plate, with a plus arm. He seems like a fit for the Brewers to me.
40. Los Angeles Angels : Reymond Fuentes OF Puerto Rico
Fuentes is one of the toolsy outfielders the White Sox are after. However, I think he’s a better fit for the Angels.
41. Arizona Diamondbacks: Mychal Givens SS Plant HS (Florida)
Givens throws 97 mph off a mound, but it seems like most teams now like him as a high upside HS shortstop. Is he a possible five-tooler?
42. Los Angeles Angels: Nick Franklin SS Lake Brantley HS (Florida)
I really like this pick. Franklin does just about everything well, with great makeup and the ability to stay at short long term.
43. Cincinnati Reds : Marc Krauss 3B/OF Ohio
I don’t know that much about Krauss, he is one of the college ranks’ best power hitters , that’s about it. I just love the prospect of the Ohio to Ohio connection here.
44. Texas Rangers : Everett Williams OF McCallum HS (Texas )
Williams is another toolsy outfielder, with good power potential and speed. The Astros were at one time considering him in the first, but have since soured on him a little.
45. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jason Kipnis OF Arizona State
Arizona will take guys from Arizona State, they would love Leake, and Kipnis will sign for slot, an essential for teams with so many early picks. Kipnis has about average tools across the board.
46. Minnesota Twins : Sam Dyson RHP South Carolina
Dyson is a draft-eligible sophomore (Drew Storen is too actually), which means he has added leverage and could potentially be tougher to sign as a result. He has a mid 90s fastball and mid 80s slider.
47. Milwaukee Brewers: Kentrail Davis OF Tennessee
Davis is also a draft-eligible sophomore, he was supposed to be a first rounder at the start of the season, but was only ok. Many believe he would benefit greatly from a junior season. Davis could have a good power/speed combo, but some think he won’t be able to play center in the future, hurting his value.
48. Los Angeles Angels: Kyle Gibson RHP Missouri
Here’s where I have Gibson. It’s really just a stab in the dark. Many think Gibson will still find his way in the first round, but I don’t really want to see a team waste a pick. The Angels have money, multiple picks and are in need of great value. When healthy, Gibson throws a low 90s/high 80s fastball with one of the best sliders in the draft and above-average changeup with above-average command.
49. Pittsburgh Pirates : Tony Sanchez C Boston CollegeTony Sanchez is the top college catcher, and is unlikely to fall this far, but he could. If he does, it would work out greatly for the Pirates, who were considering him for the first round. Sanchez has some hit ability, some power, average speed, a decent arm and good skills behind the plate. He’s a prospect you shrug your shoulders at, because, other than his ability to stay behind the plate, no tool really stands out, which is probably why he’s slipped in my mock. But, those tools in a catcher are very useful. The Pirates like to take college players, they could use a catcher in their system (who couldn’t) and Sanchez would be the BPA here. That’s the first sandwich round.
26 More Picks I'm banking on...
51. Seattle Mariners: Kyle Heckathorn RHP Kennesaw State
52. and 83. San Diego Padres: Ryan Jackson SS Miami and Jeff Kobernus 2B California
I'm not distinquishing which I like in the second and which I like in the third, so if either go at either, I'm counting it. Kobernus reminds me of Matt Antonelli, while Jackson is Adam Everett, great defense, possibly little to no offense.
54. Baltimore Orioles: Stephen Perez SS Gulliver Prep (Florida)
55. San Francisco Giants: Brody Colvin RHP HS Louisiana
56. Los Angeles Dodgers: Jake Marisneck OF HS California
59. Colorado Rockies: Blake Smith OF California
61. Chicago White Sox: Billy Hamilton OF/SS HS Mississippi
Here's where I'll finally take that toolsy outfielder.
62. Texas Rangers: Zach Van Rosenberg RHP HS Louisiana
64. Arizona Diamondbacks: Kent Mathes OF Alabama
Mathes should be a hot commodity seeing how he has no leverage, being a senior and all, a team with multiple picks, the D'backs, could use the financial relief they'd get by taking him. Plus he's got the talent to be a high pick.
66. Florida Marlins: Dane Williams RHP HS Florida
67. St. Louis Cardinals: Randal Grichuk OF HS Texas
68. Toronto Blue Jays: Brooks Raley LHP/OF Texas A&M
69. Houston Astros: David Renfroe SS HS Mississippi
Remember Derek Dietrich!!!
72. New York Mets: Brian Goodwin OF HS North Carolina
73. Milwaukee Brewers: David Holmberg RHP HS Florida
75. Philadelphia Phillies: Todd Glaesman OF HS Texas
76. New York Yankees: Steve Matz RHP HS New York
78. Tampa Bay Rays: LeVon Washington OF HS Florida
85. Baltimore Orioles: Chris Owings SS HS South Carolina
96. Los Angeles Dodgers: Bryan Berglund RHP HS California
98. St. Louis Cardinals: Robbie Shields SS/2B Florida Southern
99. Toronto Blue Jays: Bryan Morgado LHP Tennessee
107. Boston Red Sox: Mike Belfiore RHP Boston College
111. Houston Astros: Jonathan Walsh C HS Texas
At some point. Los Angeles Angels: Trayce Thompson OF HS California
Those 26 picks bring up to a grand total of 75, enjoy the draft.
Tags: Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Indians, Colorado Rockies, Detroit Tigers, Florida Marlins, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, MLB Draft 2009, New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics, Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals
Posted on: March 21, 2009 9:32 pm
Baltimore Orioles: Top 15 Prospects
Yes, welcome back to the top 15 prospects series. I have been looking into the 2009 amateur draft, and got motivated to get back on the prospect series. I would like to note that all of my rankings were made many months ago. So, if players have since left the organization, i.e. the rule 5 draft, I may not be on the ups of that. The ages of some players may also be a year off, as I did this late last year, and do not wish to look up the birthdates of a couple hundred players. However, I will do my best. I also have no idea how most of the players are doing this spring. This series is a continuation of the prospect series I started last October. So, it is each team’s top prospects, following the 2008 season, if you get what I mean by my wording. The series is targeted more towards casual fans, than hardcore prospect followers. I also value experience experienced, low upside prospects. MLL = minor league level last season – A+ is a high A team, A- is a low A team, A (no +/-) means the prospect played at both high A and low A levels last season, “a” is short season A league, and R is rookie league. Something else of note, that you will notice, is that I like to stay pretty objective and “professional” when writing capsules but, will break out of character, and display my own thoughts, and personality as well, especially when in parentheses. Enjoy, and please comment your thoughts.
15. (13). Matt Angle OF Age: 23 MLL: A-
My list is the only place you will find Angle, why? Well, I like low ceiling established players, even if they are 23 playing in low A ball, ok, so, he’s not a great prospect but, I like him all the same, and who cares about the fifteen ranked prospect in a system with Matt Wieters in it. Angle was drafted in 2007, the same draft that produced the aforementioned Wieters (why so much talk about Matt Wieters you ask, because he deserves it! Josh, pull yourself together, and defend your reasoning for placing Angle on this list over someone like Kam Mickollo… a reliever). Angle is a terrific fielder in center, rated as the best fielding outfielder in the system by BA (I hate mentioning BA in my posts). Angle also flashed good offense hitting .287 with a .385 OBP (on base %), he also flashed great base running ability, stealing 37 bases. Another plus to Angle’s season was his near 1:1 SO to BB (strikeout to walk) ratio (86 SO: 71 BB). The downside, Angle does not have much power hitting a .379 slugging %, hitting only 4 homeruns in a full season, and hitting an XBH% (extra base hit percentage) of only 23%. Still, you have to love Angle’s ability to get on base, and use his speed both on the base paths, and in the field. Angle is a very capable backup outfielder, at least, and I think he could potentially be an adequate starter but, no one else seems to share that sentiment.
(14). Collin Allen RHSP Age: 22 MLL: R
Allen was drafted in the 22nd round of the 2007 draft (2007? Just like Angle… and Wieters!). Anyways, last I knew Allen was throwing his fastball in the 80s touching the low 90s. His out pitch is his curveball, while he also throws a changeup. His stuff, not overwhelming by any means however, I value a guy who knows how to pitch, and has proven that he knows how to pitch. In 2008 he threw 62 innings in rookie league ball, posting an ERA of 2.31, and striking out 64 batters. Those are nice numbers. Allen was also a pretty good outfielder in (junior) college, he’s a good athlete – this means the ability to repeat his mechanics, and less of an injury risk, however, he does not have a projectable body, and his stuff will stay below average. With the 11-15 slots I like to include guys you should keep an eye on moving forward, Allen is that type as he begins his first full season in 2009. How is he better than Angle?
(13). Kenny Moreland RHSP Age: 22 MLL: A+/R
Here’s the skinny on Moreland, he throws his fastball in the high 80s/low 90s range, and has no projection at 5’11”. However, he also throws a good curveball, with good command. He has also shown results starting last season in the summer running rookie league, and reaching high A ball. In seventy innings he posted a 3.10 ERA, and struck out 68 batters. Moreland would not be on this list were it not for his control but, still he is very low upside. So, how is he better than Angle?
12. Ryan Adams 2B Age: 21 MLL: A-
I do not understand why people do not like Adams. In 2008 Adams hit .308 with a .367 OBP, the average is great, and the on base percentage is more than respectable for a 21 year old. Adams also flashed good power for a second basemen, recording a SLG% of .462 and hitting 11 homeruns. He also added an XBH% of 30%, which is a respectable number, and you would expect the power to continue to improve moving forward. Adams also stole 12 bases. There are two problems in Adams’ game 1. He strikes out to much, 109 SOs, to 36 BBs - that SO: BB rate is slightly worse than Bill Rowell’s and I am about to hammer Bill Rowell for his plate discipline. In my defense, Rowell’s OBP is only .315, while Adams’ is .367 so; his lack of plate discipline does not hinder him as much. 2. That’s right I said two things. Adams’ defense has become problematic, racking up errors last season, they were however, throwing errors, and he still has the hands and range to be a capable defender. So, this also does not worry me. Anyways, I think Adams can become a possibility at second base, especially with the Orioles’ lack of middle infield prospects.
11. Zach Britton LHSP Age: 21 MLL: A-
*I apologize for the two scrubs I threw in at 13 and 14. I like analyzing 15 prospects from each team, and those two were guys I threw in because of success at lower levels but, they both lack the ability to improve their below average stuff, and thus will probably not ever make it to the big leagues. For all intents and purposes, I will refer to this list as a top 13 list, with Matt Angle moving up two spots to 13. I can now list off much better prospects than the previous two: L.J. Hoes 2B, Xavier Avery OF, Chorye Spoone RHP, Pedro Beato but, I am not going to go rewrite the 13 and 14 prospects. So, deal with the two guys who do not belong there.
Britton was taken in the third round of the 2006 draft. I want to point out, quickly how Britton was not a “can’t miss” high school prospect when he was drafted but, opted to sign anyway, instead of developing his game with Texas A&M. This decision has proved to be a wise decision for Britton as he has been very consistent, and will play in AA at some point this season, and is probably on par stuff wise with the college pitchers who will be taken at the end of the first round. Had Britton gone to college he would be eligible to be drafted this year (players attending a four-year college must wait till after their junior year to be drafted), and would likely start playing for minor league team in low A this summer. Anyways, sorry for the tangent but, I wanted to illustrate, well, something, at the least this is a small lesson about the draft. Back to Britton! Britton throws his 2-seam fastball in the low 90s, and pairs it with a slider (he used to throw a power curve but, recently dumped it for the slider). Due to those two pitches Britton does an excellent job of inducing ground balls. Britton will probably have to improve his feel for his changeup to have the same success he’s had at higher levels. In 147 innings in 2008 Britton posted an ERA of 3.12, he stuck out 114 (maybe a 6.98 strikeout/9 innings is not all that impressive in low A ball but, remember, he’s a groundball pitcher). Britton has the capabilities and stuff to become a number four starter, maybe even a number three starter but, what are the chances Baltimore needs him to start?
10. Bill Rowell 3B Age: 20 MLL: A+
This guy is a great prospect. Let me explain, Billy Rowell is a great prospect in the sense that he is a former number nine overall pick (2006) has struggled hitting, some injury problems early last season, has had some pride issues but, still has a boatload of potential (how much is a boatload, well, it’s a lot), and he is only 20 years old, and was the youngest everyday player in the Carolina, high A, league. That being said, I have him pretty low on this list, which says two things 1. This system has more than a boatload of talent, and 2. I like to see results/I like established players. Anyways, more specific to Rowell, he disappointed offensively in 2008 (maybe expected being so young for the level of competition he was facing). He hit for only a .248 BA, and slugged for .368 – Rowell’s second best tool, his power potential. I will continue writing about his power numbers, Rowell (I get sick of using a guy’s last name when referring to him, I need to give everyone a nickname) hit only 7 HRs in 375 at bats – 10-15 over the course of a full, healthy season – Billy R also hit an XBH% (extra base hit percentage, I use it a lot) of 33% which actually is not bad, especially given his slugging percentage. Now the really bad part, Billy R struck out almost three times more than he walked (104 SOs to 36 BBs, yikes!). Rowell is below average defensively, and does not project to be any better than average (if average). Many believe he will need to move to first, which would 1. Waste his best tool, his arm, and 2. Lower the value of his bat, because although he does have above average power potential, he does not have thirty home run power, and will not hit for a high batting average. So, it is best if Billy R stays at third. If he cannot, and has to be moved, why not to a corner outfield position, there his arm would still play, and he is not a terrible athlete so, left field is a possibility (I mean, Manny does it, right?) Billy R could be an above average third baseman at the big league level but, that is contingent on three things 1. The power comes 2. His plate discipline improves 3. He stays at third. If not than Billy R could be an effective corner infield sub/pinch hitter/left side of a platoon/average-below average first basemen/corner infielder, you have to like the options (Remember when I said Billy R was a great prospect? Well, look at how long his blurb is, that is how intriguing (yes, intriguing is the better word) he is).
9. David Hernandez RHSP Age: 23 MLL: AA
David Hernandez is the Orioles’ sicth best pitching prospect, on this list, which speaks volumes as to how much of a boatload of talent this system has, particularly on the mound. David Hernandez has been dominant the last couple of seasons. In 2008 he led the Eastern League in strikeouts, with 166 in 141 innings; he posted a stellar 2.68 ERA. David Hernandez throws an above average fastball into the mid 90s; he also throws an above average slider/slurve in the high 70s, low 80s. Despite the great stats, and two above average pitches, many people, including myself have doubts about his future as a starter. The reasons are threefold 1. His spotty command, even when D Hern is throwing his fastball. 2. His lack of a third pitch. D Hern’s changeup is far below average. 3. The Orioles have five pitching prospects ahead of him, plus R Liz, and Guthrie, why would they want to waste D Hern in the minors when he could be an effective reliever right now? Best case scenario, D Hern develops an average third pitch, shores up his fastball command, and becomes a number three starter, which would make for some excellent spring training battles!
8. Brandon Snyder 1B/3B Age: 22 MLL: A+
Snyder is currently a first baseman but, the thought of trying him at third has been tossed around. His value, obviously, increases with a move to third. Defensively he is solid at first though. Why start talking about Snyder’s D, because it will not matter for the rest of this blurb, his game is his offense. Bryder (this nickname thing is catchy) hit for a .315 average last season. He, however, has the same problem as Adams, and Rowell, that is a K:BB ratio in the range of 3 to 1 and 2 to 1. However, like Adams, Bryder still managed a respectable OBP of .357, not great, but respectable. Snyder showed good power last season, and has a little more potential left in the tank, hitting a SLG% of .490 (compare it to Rowell’s .368, someone with similar power potential) in 2008. Bryder added 13 homeruns, and an XBH% of 35%. I like Snyder as an average big league first baseman, and above average third baseman (on offense) but, his outlook gets better if he increases his walks, and power. As of now, Bryder is headed in the right direction.
7. Brandon Erbe RHSP Age: 21 MLL: A+
Erbe threw 151 innings in 2008, posting a lackluster 4.30 ERA but, striking out 151 batters. Erbe throws two fastballs, his 4-seamer is thrown in the low 90s but, can touch the mid 90s, while his 2-seamer is thrown a couple mph slower but, compensates that with heavy life. He also throws a slider, which should be above average in the future. I can almost assure you that either Erbe or D Hern will be moved to the bullpen soon. The Orioles just have too many starting pitchers (too many starters? There’s no such thing), and Erbe and D Hern have the power stuff that plays well in the bullpen, and lack effective third pitches. If Erbe remains a starter he should continue to work on his changeup, and like D Hern, can become a third starter type.
6. Troy Patton LHSP Age: 23 MLL: NA
Patton is the “gem” (tongue in cheek) of the Tejada trade with the Astros, and was injured all of last year. However, he is back, and scouting reports are favorable. Being a part of the Astros organization for so long makes Patton a personal favorite of mine. He throws his fastball in the low 90s, and commands it everywhere in the strike zone. He also throws a tight slider and changeup in the high 70s. Patton can command all of his stuff, and has advanced pitchability. I see as one of those crafty lefties, cough, Tom Glavine, cough, and is a number three starter type. It may take him a little while to get the feel for pitching again though, following the injury.
5. Nolan Reimold OF Age: 25 MLL: AA
Reimold is a guy I really like, despite the obvious flaw of being 25, and spending all of 2008 in AA. There he hit .284 with a .367 OBP. Unlike most of the position players on this list Reimold has good plate discipline, with a K: BB ratio of nearly 1 to1. Reimold bolstered great power, hitting 25 homeruns, and a SLG% of .501, with an XBH% of 40%, all great numbers. Reimold’s defense is his weakness, as he has bad instincts in the outfield. However, Reimold has a plus arm, and is capable of serving as a centerfielder at times, although he will (and should) play everyday at a corner. Reimold also has good athleticism, and can steal a few bags. Reimold can be an above average corner outfielder everyday very soon.
4. Jake Arrieta RHSP Age: 20 MLL: A+
Now comes, perhaps, the best set of pitching prospects, up first, Jake Arrieta. Arrieta throws a mid 90s fastball with late life, however, he has trouble commanding it at times. Arrieta’s second above average pitch is his slider; he also throws a big breaking curveball, and a changeup. In 2008 Jake Arrieta threw 113 innings in the minors, posting a 2.87 ERA, with 120 strikeouts. He also spent time playing for team USA in the Olympics. Arrieta is a future top of the rotation starter but, first must refine his curve and changeup, as well as his fastball command.
3. Brian Matusz LHSP Age: 21 MLL: Arizona Fall League
Missed the regular season after signing, Matusz did, however, throw 27 innings in the AFL, posting a 4.73 ERA and striking out a 31 batters. Matusz was the number four overall pick last June. He throws four above average pitches. B Mat’s fastball falls in the low 90s reaching 94 on occasion, it has some natural sink to it. Matusz also has some projection left so; do not be surprised if you see his fastball topping somewhere in the 95-96 range before he reaches the majors. B Mat also throws a plus curveball and changeup, as well as a slider/cutter. B Mat is a future number two starter, his stuff is not quite electric enough to be a number one starter but, he still possesses very good stuff with good command. He should be called up to the big leagues late in the year, and could become a fixture in the bullpen to start 2010.
2. Chris Tillman RHSP Age: 20 MLL: AA
There are those who think Matusz is the top prospect in the system, they would be wrong. Tillman does have that “electric” stuff required of a number one starter. He throws his fastball in the low 90s but, gets it up into the mid 90s much more often than Matusz, and his peak of 95/96 mph is higher than Matusz’, I also believe Tillman has more projection left. Due to his height 6’5” C Till throws his fastball on a downward plane, a difficult angle to hit. C Till’s best pitch is a plus (possibly plus-plus) 12-6 curveball he throws in the mid 70s, he also throws a changeup, which still needs work but, should be an average offering in time. One thing Matusz has on C Till is command but, at age TWENTY (20 and in AA last season) Tillman has plenty of time to refine that area of his game. Now, the real reason I think Tillman is a better prospect than Matusz, his results! In 2008, C Till threw 136 innings posting a 3.18 ERA, while striking out 154 batters. He did this all in AA, at the age of 20. Tillman is the future ace of this team, how fast he develops his command will determine how fast he arrives there though.
1. Matt Wieters C Age: 22 MLL: AA/A+
Finally, the best prospect in baseball, I and Georgia Tech give you, Matt Wieters. In 2008 Wieters hit .355, with a .454 OBP, and .600 SLG%. I’m going to give you a second to process that… He added 27 homeruns, an XBH% of 33%, and to top it all off, Wieters walked six more times (82) than he struck out (76). What more could you ask for from a prospect on offense? Defensively Wieters is a complete catcher, with plus or better: receiving skills, blocking ability, and arm behind the plate. Wieters does not run well but, is a decent athlete anyway. What does the future hold for Wieters? Ten all star games, 30 home runs annually, many .300/.400/.500 seasons, multiple gold glove awards, possibly an MVP award, and of course zero playoff appearances… as an Oriole at least… sorry.
Final Thoughts: I feel bad for the Orioles. Having to be in the same division as the Red Sox and Yankees but, now also the Rays and the Rays do not seem to be going anywhere, anytime soon. Still, the Orioles have a solid core of players to build around in the majors: Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Brian Roberts, and Wieters, along with the three stud starting pitchers. However, even with that group – and the number five pick in June – I don’t think the Orioles are good enough to compete with the aforementioned three teams any time in the coming years. Which is a shame, because the Orioles have been doing a great job of finding and developing young prospects, particularly young pitching. Pitching is obviously the strength of the system; they have six guys who could become number three starters. However, after Wieters and Reimold the Orioles are really lacking for position players. Both Snyder and Rowell show some promise but, their values will suffer if they both end up at first base and both may end up as only average offensively as well. The Orioles are severely lacking prospects in centerfield and at the middle infield positions, I would look for them to look at this area in the draft so, be on the lookout for Donovan Tate HS OF, and Dustin Ackley OF/1B UNC.