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Tag:Florida Marlins
Posted on: June 8, 2009 9:16 pm
Edited on: June 9, 2009 3:44 pm
 

MLB Mock Draft 2009

Hello, welcome to my 2009 MLB Mock Draft.  This is where I will try to predict every pick for the first several rounds.  With the recent news of Kyle Gibson’s stress fracture and other stock changes, I have just completely remade my mock draft, before I even released the first version.  I had originally planned to mock all the day one picks, the first one hundred and eleven.  But, because I have had to change many picks, I am not sure I will be able to get that many done by the draft tomorrow.  I will however, mock as many picks as possible and provide sufficient information on each pick.  I will continue working on this and update it, as I finish each round.  My goal is to predict 20% of the picks I mock.  I hope those of you who read my write up enjoy, please comment, and come back tomorrow for my thoughts on the draft itself.  Later in the week, I will be reviewing the draft, so look for that as well. 

Scouting reports come from a number of sites, most prominently Baseball America, PGCrosscheckers.com, John Sickel’s site minorleagueball.com and milb.com. 

There are a couple places in the draft I want to point out now, for when I come back to grade - how many picks I got right - my mock.  Where ever a team is picking back-to-back, notably Arizona at 16 and 17 and the Angels at 24 and 25, if I guess a guy at one of those two spots and he is picked by that team at the other spot, I’m counting it.  Also, in the first round supplemental, I am counting any player I guess the correct team for.  If Nick Franklin goes to the Angels in the supp. no matter what pick, I’m counting it.  I think that’s fair, right?  Anyways, enjoy. 

I have decided I am going to post what I have on the blog, and add to it, as it gets done.

First Round

1. Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg RHP San Diego State

Strasburg is the number one pick of the 2009 MLB draft.  My official prediction for how much he signs for… $21.5 million.  Strasburg is the best prospect in the draft era, and would fit into a big league rotation immediately.  I would love for the Nationals to send him to AAA, so I can see him in Syracuse, and give you all my own scouting report of him.  He throws his fastball in the high 90s and can touch 103 mph.  He also throws a hammer breaking ball in the low-to-mid 80s and a changeup he throws in the low 80s.  I worry a little; I think its possible Strasburg blows out his arm at some point, a la the guy a lot of people compare him to, Mark Prior.  With a comp. of Mark Prior, who wouldn’t worry?   Anyways I seem to be in the minority on this. 

2. Seattle Mariners: Dustin Ackley OF North Carolina

If Strasburg is on the first tier of prospects by himself, I would say Ackley is on the second tier, all by himself.  He is clearly the best hitter, having “plus, plus hittability”, according to milb.com’s draft report.  He adds plus speed and range in centerfield.  Ackley has dispelled any thoughts that he wouldn’t be able to play centerfield, following Tommy John surgery last summer, which had him saddled at first.  The main question on Ackley is how much power he’ll hit for, and although I don’t think he needs too much to be an effective major league hitter, he certainly hit 20-30 homeruns.  There was some talk about the Mariners wanning on Ackley and considering Aaron Crow or Tanner Scheppers, but I don’t buy it, Ackley’s the guy.  What I think the Mariners are getting in Ackley is a future no. 3 hitter, who is going to play centerfield, hit .300+ with a .400 OBP, and be a 20-20 guy (Curtis Granderson better OBP?), not bad, eh?

3. San Diego Padres: Donavan Tate OF Cartersville HS (Georgia)

After the first two picks things get very interesting, very fast.  It seems as though the Padres have narrowed this selection to three guys: Tate, Aaron Crow and Mike Minor.  Although, if I were running this draft, I would take Tyler Matzek, who I believe is the third best prospect in the draft.  Crow would also be a good pick, but Minor is a clear overdraft.  If Ackley falls, the Padres WILL take him.  Tate has, perhaps, the highest ceiling in the draft.  However, he is also going to cost a lot of money, close to six million?  Tate has a strong commitment to North Carolina, where he would play both football and baseball – his father Lars Tate was an NFL player.  There are also questions about Tate’s hit-ability.  I like Tate at this spot for two reasons: 1. He’s the guy available with the most upside and San Diego’s system could really use some upside, particularly up the middle 2. If Tate doesn’t go number three, I don’t know where he goes, so I instead of forcing a headache upon myself, I’ve decided to take the risk, along with the Padres, and take Tate. 

4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Aaron Crow RHP Fort Worth (University of Missouri)

As previously stated, I’m fairly certain about the first two picks, however, every other pick is far from certain.  Rumors have swirled around the Pirates, involving a sign-ability pick here.  Names discussed include: Tony Sanchez and Bobby Borchering.  The Pirates would like to save money because they are rumored to be the favorites to sign Dominican Miguel Angel Sano a SS, the rumored price is four million.  Apart from those rumors the Pirates are known to like college pitchers and the top arm on my board is Aaron Crow, who has little negotiating power and should sign around slot.  If Crow’s name sounds familiar, it should, he was the number nine pick in last year’s draft, and went to an independent league, along with Tanner Scheppers, after failing to sign, I had him going number ten to my Astros.  Crow throws a low-to-mid 90s sinking fastball, a plus slider and an at least average changeup, which is his biggest improvement from last year.  Personally, I like Crow and think he has front of the rotation upside, as a reliever he could pitch in the major’s later this season and could be in a rotation next. 

5. Baltimore Orioles: Tyler Matzek LHP Capistrano Valley HS (California)

As previously stated, Matzek is the third prospect on my board, and although Zach Wheeler seems to be the popular pick here of late, I still like Matzek – and I love the idea of Wheeler seven to his home state Braves.  Matzek throws his fastball up to 95 mph, but sits in the low 90s.  He throws two at least average breaking balls, a curveball he throws in the mid 70s and a slider in the mid 80s.  He also throws a changeup, but hasn’t needed it yet.  Matzek may not be a true no. one starter type, but he has good 2/3 starter upside, with much more polish than you would expect from a HS pitcher.  The Orioles usually draft the best player available (BPA) and don’t shy away from guy with perceived signability problems.  I do think the Orioles would love to add a good position player to their system, but there is no one of value here, so the Orioles will be “forced” to add to their already stellar crop of pitchers. 

6. San Francisco Giants: Tanner Scheppers RHP St. Paul (Fresno State)

Scheppers is a tough guy to slot in.  Many experts have him falling out of the top ten and in some cases out of the first round, because of fear for that same shoulder problem that made him fall last year.  However, because I am mocking through the first supplemental, I would hate to have to guess how far Scheppers is going to fall, I mean, I already have to do that for Kyle Gibson, so I’m not going to torture myself and do it for Scheppers too.  I like this fit.  Although, I haven’t seen many people agree with me, that’s ok though.  Scheppers has put together a good showing in St. Paul and should be close to major league ready.  He profiles as a top of the rotation starter, but does come with injury risk.  He throws his fastball in the mid 90s and can put “cut and sink” onto it (according to milb.com).  He also throws a power curve and changeup.  Like the Orioles, I think the Giants would love to add a bat and could be a possibility for Tate should he fall past the Padres, but without sufficient value on my board the Giants will also add to their “stellar crop of pitchers”.  Jacob Turner and Zach Wheeler are also candidates. 

7. Atlanta Braves: Zack Wheeler RHP East Paulding HS (Georgia)

I hope the Brave appreciate me dodging two bullets (the Orioles and Giants) to deliver them their prized Georgia arm.  Wheeler was the guy I liked at the beginning of the year for the Astros, but since, has had his stock rise more than just about anyone in the draft.  Wheeler has a perfect pitcher’s body at 6’4 170, and also fits Atlanta’s mold as a prep local product, as an added bonus, he’ll sign for slot!  Wheeler already throws up to 95 mph and still has plenty of projection.  He also throws an above average curveball and the makings of an average change.  The sky is the limit for Wheeler, who has one of the highest upsides among the HS pitchers in this draft, but he also has some mechanical problems. 

8. Cincinnati Reds: Alex White RHP North Carolina

This is where I had Gibson slated for awhile, dubbing him the Yonder Alonso of this draft.  However, due to the stress fracture, the Reds are unlikely to take him – although they could – and I don’t have to explain my Gibson = Alonso comparison.  White has been up and down, but I still believe he has the highest upside amongst college pitchers NNS (not named Strasburg).  I actually really like White and believe he would be a steal here.  Leake and Grant Green are also possibilities.  White throws a low 90s fastball, which gets up to 95 mph; his 2-seamer has great movement to it.  His slider is also a plus pitch, he throws a splitter as an off-speed pitch, as well as a below average curveball. 

9. Detroit Tigers: Jacob Turner RHP Westminster Christian Academy (Missouri)

Jacob Turner wants Rick Porcello money, well; why not give him to the team with a Rick Porcello void in their minors?  Turner has a large frame at 6-5 220 and is already throwing in the mid-low 90s.  He also throws a mid 70s slider.  He hasn’t really needed a changeup in high school.  Matt Purke is now being rumored

10. Washington Nationals: Chad Jenkins RHP Kennesaw State

Jenkins is a bit of an overdraft, but not too badly, since many think he could go to the Blue Jays at twenty also.  The Nationals have also been attached to Mike Trout and others with this pick.  The idea being to sign someone at or below slot since Strasburg is going to cost $21.5 million.  Jenkins throws his fastballs, two and four seamers, in the low 90s.  He adds a low 80s slider and changeup. 

11. Colorado Rockies: Mike Leake RHP Arizona State

Leake was the big mover during the college season, as he moved up probably a round.  He led division I in a couple statistical categories – so eat it Strasburg.  However, Leake profiles as a 3/4 starter, with a high floor.  He throws a high 80s/low 90s sinking fastball, he adds a high 70s/low 80s slider and plus changeup.  He command is plus, plus.  He’s short, but athletic for a pitcher.  The last four drafts, 78% of the Rockies’ top 137 picks have been college players, 50% have been college pitchers.  Mike Leake is a nice complement to Christian Friedrich (last year’s first rounder), and gives the Rockies a nice trio of advanced pitchers (throwing Jhoulys Chacin into the mix).  Plus they need all the pitching help they can get – although all three of the pitchers I listed profile towards the middle of the rotation.

12. Kansas City Royals: Wil Myers C Wesleyan Christian Academy (North Carolina)

After a couple years of paying for high priced talents: Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, etc, the Royals are looking for a bargain at a premium position (C, SS, CF), and rumors include Tony Sanchez, the top college catcher.  However, I like the higher upsided (yes, upsided, I like the way it sounds) Myers.  Myers has raw power and all the tools to become a solid defensive catcher, with a good arm.  He is also very athletic for a catcher, with above-average speed. 

13. Oakland Athletics: Grant Green SS Southern California

Before the season, Grant was expected to be one of the first three picks in the draft.  However, he has played his way down, as many now question his ability to stay at short, as well as his power.  Green does, however, have good hitting ability, and average to above-average speed.  His arm is also at least average, leaning above-average slightly.  However, (milb.com) he has some trouble ranging up the middle and his power is more line-drive power than anything else, but he could hit 15-20 homeruns.  Oakland’s MO is established college players, which makes it Green or Brothers in my book.  The A’s are also attached to Donavan Tate, should he fall, and his reported $6 million price tag, so signing Green should be no problem.  By the way, I love me some Green.  I think he’ll stick at short, and be a near .300 hitter with 15-20 homeruns… that’s enough. 

14. Texas Rangers: Shelby Miller HS Brownwood HS (Texas)

If there was a lock this late in the draft, it’d be Miller to the Rangers.  It fits there MO, he’s local, it works.  He throws in the mid 90s with a good curve in the mid 70s, but he has some command issues.  He’s plenty projectable.  Let me double check if this makes sense: Texas usually takes the BPA; money shouldn’t be a problem and they like their fire-ballers, yep, Miller does makes sense. 

15. Cleveland Indians : Mike Minor LHP Vanderbilt

  Mike Minor has been rumored all over the first round, but there is no clear consensus on who that one team is who takes him.    The Indians want Miller, but he won’t get there.  So, it will be the best college player on their board.  The question is who is the top college arm on their board?  It could be Minor, Rex Brothers, James Paxton or Eric Arnett.  I picked Minor.  Mainly because he would fall in my mock if I didn’t put him here (if he doesn’t go here, my prediction is 19 to the Cardinals.  Minor is a low ceiling/high floor starter.  He throws a low 90s fastball, along with both a slider and curveball, and a good enough changeup.  He probably has 4/5 starter upside. 

16. Arizona Diamondbacks : Rex Brothers LHP Lipscomb

17. Arizona Diamondbacks: Bobby Borchering 3B Bishop Verot HS (Florida )

Here’s the first pair of D’back picks.  They like to go high upside HSers early, followed by college floor.  Borchering has one of the best bats in the draft.  He is switch hitter with great bat speed and raw power from both sides.  Many believe he will have to eventually move to first but, I think he could stay at third.  His speed is average or a little below.  His arm is about average as well. 

Brothers is a guy I like a lot.  He throws his fastball in the mid 90s, he also throws a good slider, with a lot of movement, hasn’t thrown his changeup too much.  He’s a rare lefty that can dial his fastball up to 96/97 mph and I think his ceiling is 2/3 starter if he develops his changeup. 

18. Florida Marlins : Chad James LHP Yukon HS (Oklahoma )

Chad James is the guy I’m hoping falls to the ‘Stros at 21, but it’s unlikely he will as he is coveted by the D’backs, Marlins, Cardinals and Blue Jays.  The Marlins develop HS pitching very well, so James makes sense here.  If Borchering gets to here, I could see the Marlins taking the in-state third basemen.  James is a lefty with a low 90s fastball, he has touched 95 mph.  He also throws an above-average power curve and above-average changeup.  He has plenty of projection.  I seriously don’t know why James isn’t considered one of the elite HS arms, but one team will benefit as a result in the 16-22 range. 

19. St. Louis Cardinals : James Paxton LHP Kentucky

Word is the Cardinals are leaning left-handed pitcher, the options being: Minor, Brothers, James and Paxton.  One of them will fall, and in this scenario it’s the Boras corp. client, Paxton.  Paxton throws in the mid-to-high 90s, along with a hard slider and a change, which isn’t worth praising.  I don’t like Paxton, lack of a real changeup, command, questionable mechanics, Boras, but it seems like the Cards do, so he’s the pick.  

20. Toronto Blue Jays: Eric Arnett RHP Indiana

This was a tough one.  I’ve been hearing college arm.  The Jays would have liked Jenkins, Minor or Brothers, but none of them fell.  I also think Chad James is an option, although history would show the Jays shy away from HS arms in the early rounds, and Matt Hobgood is still an option.  Kyle Gibson, post-injury, has been rumored here and I think Mike Trout or Tim Wheeler are options here.  Trout has one of the highest upsides amongst position players and Wheeler is the next best college bat.  I went with the college arm route and took Arnett, although I am far less than confident with that pick.  Arnett is a 6’5” righty, who throws in the mid 90s, he also throws a slider in the high 70s/low 80s which can get batters out.  His changeup needs some work.  I’m not in love with this selection, but that’s mostly because I’m not in love with Arnett, who has risen this season, after an increase in velocity.  I also am not high on his secondary pitches or command, but he has to go somewhere in the first round… I guess, and he could go as high as 15. 

21. Houston Astros: Slade Heathcott LHP/OF Texas HS (Texas)

I have gone over this pick again and again.  I have changed my mind many times, and I still have no clue.  I have studied Astros drafts, particularly last year’s.  I have looked at the pool of names, over-and-over again, but still nothing looks right.  What does look right is Chad James.  He’d be perfect.  He’s the top guy on my wish list, but I really don’t think he’s going to last here, and I decided to adhere to my integrity as a blogger (ha) and have him go earlier.  I also like Rex Brothers, but he also will probably be gone.  There are other names in consideration here: Matt Hobgood would make sense as the next best HS arm, Jared Mitchell is the best athlete, I call Tim Wheeler “the Jason Castro of this draft”, and I started a recent buzz about Mike Trout.  Seriously, I participated in John Sickel’s mock draft on Saturday and took Trout with his pick, and since then, a bunch of people have started talking about Trout to the Astros.  I would love to see it, but I’m afraid Houston isn’t taking an OF from New Jersey and people just went to John’s website saw the pick, and liked… maybe I’m just being ethnocentric, I don’t know.  Anyways, the guy at thebaseballdraftreport.com said, “ a great tip though for any young mockers out there – go with as many off the wall picks as possible because, on the off chance you get lucky and nail one of them, you’ll be lauded as a prophet. Mock drafts almost work counter to basic human nature as people often forget the bad picks, but clearly remember the good ones.”  (By the way I suggest thebaseballdraftreport.com to anyone interested in the draft, lots of good insight)  I like this idea.  Houston is my favorite team, so I am going to hook them up with one of my favorite draft prospects, Slade Heathcott and actually it could happen...  Heathcott has one of the five highest upsides in the draft (among position players).  However, he has signability issues and character issues, which is why most teams are considering him for the second and third rounds.  The Yankees, among other teams are thinking about nabbing Heathcott in the first, due to the lack of solid options.  The Astros are also high on Heathcott, plus the all important, Texas factor.  So, why can’t the Astros jump on Heathcott?  One thing I can tell you about Bobby Heck and the current Astros draft philosophy is, they do not care about the consensus.  They will take whoever they believe to be the BPA, and it could be Heathcott.  Look at Jason Castro and Jordan Lyles from last draft?  Now go look at how they’re doing in their first full season… Jason Castro, by the way, for all you Astros fans, was called up to AA Corpus Christi and will be ready for Wednesday’s game.  Heathcott is a five-tool outfielder.   According to milb.com, he has “plus hitting ability”, “plus power to all fields”, above-average speed, plus arm strength and a plus defender.  I am going to try hard, to will this pick into reality. 

22. Minnesota Twins: Jiovanni Mier SS Bonita HS (California)

The MO on the Twins: HS bats, college arms.  Mier is the kind of toolsy player they like and with the first couple of tiers of college pitchers gone; he seems like an obvious choice.  Mier is the top HS shortstop amongst a deep class.  He has all the defensive tools to stay at short too.  He also has some hitting ability, with a little power to go with it. 

23. Chicago White Sox: Andrew Oliver LHP Oklahoma State

Oliver throws a mid 90s fastball along with a plus changeup, but he does not really have a breaking pitch yet.  He is also a Boras corp. client, but that shouldn’t bother the Chi Sox.  The White Sox have, however, been attached to several of the toolsy outfielders still around: Trout, Everett Williams and Reymond Fuentes. 

24. Los Angeles Angels : Tyler Skaggs LHP Santa Monica HS (California)

25. Los Angeles Angels : Mike Trout OF Milville HS (New Jersey)

Another back-to-back pick, remember if Skaggs goes 25 or Trout goes 24, I’m still counting it as a correct pick.  The Angels, like the D’backs have an abundance of early round pick, so they could do almost anything with them, but based on their philosophy and lack of talent in their system, they’ll go HS, HS, HS, early and often.  Skaggs is a California arm.  He throws a low 90s fastball, but should add more velocity as he matures; he is 6’5” 180 and offers plenty of projection, and some.  Skaggs also throws a plus curveball in the low 70s. 

Trout, like I’ve said is one of the ten best bats in the draft and I’ve heard it said that he is the most likely guy in the class to join the 30-30 club.  He’s a five-tooler with solid defensive skills and a plus arm. 

  26. Milwaukee Brewers: Garrett Gould RHP Maize HS Kansas

Gould just looks like a Brewers pick.  I get a Jake Odorizzi vibe from him, in fact.  He throws his fastball in the low 90s and can get into the mid 90s a little.  He also throws a plus curve and a decent enough changeup.  Gould also has that all important, no not “Texas factor”, projection thing.  He’s 6’4” 190 after all.

27. Seattle Mariners: Drew Storen RHP Stanford

  Storen is the top closer in the class, but I think he’ll be drafted as a starter, and the Mariners seem like a team that would do it.  He throws his fastball in the low 90s with good movement.  He also throws his curve in the low 80s and has an effective changeup.  That three pitch mix makes me think starter.  The Mariners are big on college players in the draft, by the way. 

28. Boston Red Sox: Matt Purke HS Klein HS (Texas)

Purke is easily one of the fifteen best players in the draft, but he wants so much money and there are only so many teams that are going to pay $5 million + for a prospect.  Which means someone is going to fall and the likely candidate is Purke.  So, some team at the bottom of the draft will luck out, possibly the Red Sox.  Purke throws his fastball in the low 90s, touching 95.  I’ve said that a lot, I mean, a lot of pitchers throw in the low 90s touching 95.  He throws his curve in the high 70s and has a good changeup.  He also has good command and a projectable body. 

29. New York Yankees: Matt Hobgood RHP Norco HS (California)

New York needs talent and s high school arm as good as Hobgood’s should be tough to pass up.  SS/RHP David Renfroe (this year’s Casey Kelly and Slade Heathcott have been rumored here.  Hobgood throws his fastball in the low 90s, he also throws a plus curve in the mid 70s, according to milb.com it could be the best curve among HS pitchers in the class.  He doesn’t have a changeup though, so he’ll need to work on a third pitch. 

30. Tampa Bay Rays: Max Stassi C Yuba City HS (California)

The Rays’ position of need on the farm is at catcher, and with Stassi available need happens to coincide with the BPA.  Stassi has great instincts and makeup; he also has all the defensive tools behind the plate and an average arm.  His bat should be good and he has some power. 

31. Chicago Cubs: AJ Pollock OF Notre Dame

The last four years, 85% of Cubs picks in the top 149 pick have been college players.  Pollock happens to be a personal favorite of mine, and it is tough to let him go to the Cubs, but the pick makes sense.  Pollock has a very advanced approach at the plate, and has gap power.  He is an above-average runner with great instincts.  He is a good fielder in center with an average arm. 

32. Colorado Rockies: Tim Wheeler OF Sacramento State

Kyle Gibson is rumored here but I’m not quite buying it.  Although, interesting move for the Rockies, if it happens, more on that later… again, if it happens.  Wheeler makes sense as the BPA and a college player; remember what I said about the Rockies and college players?  Wheeler makes good contact, with some power at times, and has plus speed.  He also has an average arm, but plus range in center.  That’s the first round. 

Compensation Round A

Now that we’re done with the first round, the blurbs are going to be much shorter and to the point. 

33. Seattle Mariners : Matt Davidson 3B Yucaipa HS (California )

Davidson has some of the greatest power potential in the draft, but like Borchering may have to move off first.  Personally, I think he can stay at third, though.  Seattle tends to lean college, but Davidson’s power bat may be too much to pass up and this pick would continue a stellar draft for the Mariners. 

34. Colorado Rockies : Alex Wilson RHP Texas A&M

The Rockies pick for a third time and I have them once again taking a college right hander.  Wilson, however, is not much like their first pick Mike Leake.  He has a mid 90s fastball, a sometimes plus slider he throws in the mid 80s a curveball and changeup, although the latter two aren’t nearly a useful as the first two.  Wilson pitched from the Texas A&M bullpen the second half of the season, but he still profiles as a starter with a pretty high ceiling. 

35. Arizona Diamondbacks : Brett Jackson OF California

Jackson is another personal fav.  He has a lot of raw power and some hitting ability, but strikes out a lot.  He also is an above-average runner.  He has a plus arm and is a decent fielder in center. 

36. Los Angeles Dodgers : Madison Younginer RHP Mauldin HS (South Carolina )

The Dodgers didn’t have a first round pick, so should go for a lot of upside with this pick… how about Younginer, who was a reliever in high school, but will be tried out as a starter in pro ball.  He has a mid 90s fastball and projection. 

37. Toronto Blue Jays : Jared Mitchell OF Louisiana State University

  Mitchell is one of the very best athletes in the draft, and was a possibility for the Astros in round one.  His ceiling is a Carl Crawford type outfielder with more power. 

38. Chicago White Sox : Rich Poythress 1B Georgia

  Poythress is one of the best pure hitters in the draft.  Again I opt against the toolsy OF rumors and I really don’t know why. 

39. Milwaukee Brewers : Tommy Joseph C Horizon HS (Arizona )

Joseph has enormous raw power and a chance to play behind the plate, with a plus arm.  He seems like a fit for the Brewers to me. 

40. Los Angeles Angels : Reymond Fuentes OF Puerto Rico

Fuentes is one of the toolsy outfielders the White Sox are after.  However, I think he’s a better fit for the Angels. 

41. Arizona Diamondbacks: Mychal Givens SS Plant HS (Florida)

Givens throws 97 mph off a mound, but it seems like most teams now like him as a high upside HS shortstop.  Is he a possible five-tooler?

42. Los Angeles Angels: Nick Franklin SS Lake Brantley HS (Florida)

  I really like this pick.  Franklin does just about everything well, with great makeup and the ability to stay at short long term. 

43. Cincinnati Reds : Marc Krauss 3B/OF Ohio

I don’t know that much about Krauss, he is one of the college ranks’ best power hitters , that’s about it.  I just love the prospect of the Ohio to Ohio connection here. 

44. Texas Rangers : Everett Williams OF McCallum HS (Texas )

Williams is another toolsy outfielder, with good power potential and speed.  The Astros were at one time considering him in the first, but have since soured on him a little. 

45. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jason Kipnis OF Arizona State

Arizona will take guys from Arizona State, they would love Leake, and Kipnis will sign for slot, an essential for teams with so many early picks.  Kipnis has about average tools across the board. 

46. Minnesota Twins : Sam Dyson RHP South Carolina

Dyson is a draft-eligible sophomore (Drew Storen is too actually), which means he has added leverage and could potentially be tougher to sign as a result.  He has a mid 90s fastball and mid 80s slider. 

47. Milwaukee Brewers: Kentrail Davis OF Tennessee

Davis is also a draft-eligible sophomore, he was supposed to be a first rounder at the start of the season, but was only ok.  Many believe he would benefit greatly from a junior season.  Davis could have a good power/speed combo, but some think he won’t be able to play center in the future, hurting his value. 

48. Los Angeles Angels: Kyle Gibson RHP Missouri

Here’s where I have Gibson.  It’s really just a stab in the dark.  Many think Gibson will still find his way in the first round, but I don’t really want to see a team waste a pick.  The Angels have money, multiple picks and are in need of great value.  When healthy, Gibson throws a low 90s/high 80s fastball with one of the best sliders in the draft and above-average changeup with above-average command. 

49. Pittsburgh Pirates : Tony Sanchez C Boston College

Tony Sanchez is the top college catcher, and is unlikely to fall this far, but he could.  If he does, it would work out greatly for the Pirates, who were considering him for the first round.  Sanchez has some hit ability, some power, average speed, a decent arm and good skills behind the plate.  He’s a prospect you shrug your shoulders at, because, other than his ability to stay behind the plate, no tool really stands out, which is probably why he’s slipped in my mock.  But, those tools in a catcher are very useful.  The Pirates like to take college players, they could use a catcher in their system (who couldn’t) and Sanchez would be the BPA here.  That’s the first sandwich round.

26 More Picks I'm banking on...

51. Seattle Mariners: Kyle Heckathorn RHP Kennesaw State
52. and 83. San Diego Padres: Ryan Jackson SS Miami and Jeff Kobernus 2B California
I'm not distinquishing which I like in the second and which I like in the third, so if either go at either, I'm counting it.  Kobernus reminds me of Matt Antonelli, while Jackson is Adam Everett, great defense, possibly little to no offense. 
54. Baltimore Orioles: Stephen Perez SS Gulliver Prep (Florida)
55. San Francisco Giants: Brody Colvin RHP HS Louisiana
56. Los Angeles Dodgers: Jake Marisneck OF HS California
59. Colorado Rockies: Blake Smith OF California
61. Chicago White Sox: Billy Hamilton OF/SS HS Mississippi
Here's where I'll finally take that toolsy outfielder. 
62. Texas Rangers: Zach Van Rosenberg RHP HS Louisiana
64. Arizona Diamondbacks: Kent Mathes OF Alabama
Mathes should be a hot commodity seeing how he has no leverage, being a senior and all, a team with multiple picks, the D'backs, could use the financial relief they'd get by taking him.  Plus he's got the talent to be a high pick. 
66. Florida Marlins: Dane Williams RHP HS Florida
67. St. Louis Cardinals: Randal Grichuk OF HS Texas
68. Toronto Blue Jays: Brooks Raley LHP/OF Texas A&M
69. Houston Astros: David Renfroe SS HS Mississippi
Remember Derek Dietrich!!!
72. New York Mets: Brian Goodwin OF HS North Carolina
73. Milwaukee Brewers: David Holmberg RHP HS Florida
75. Philadelphia Phillies: Todd Glaesman OF HS Texas
76. New York Yankees: Steve Matz RHP HS New York
78. Tampa Bay Rays: LeVon Washington OF HS Florida
85. Baltimore Orioles: Chris Owings SS HS South Carolina
96. Los Angeles Dodgers: Bryan Berglund RHP HS California
98. St. Louis Cardinals: Robbie Shields SS/2B Florida Southern
99. Toronto Blue Jays: Bryan Morgado LHP Tennessee
107. Boston Red Sox: Mike Belfiore RHP Boston College
111. Houston Astros: Jonathan Walsh C HS Texas
At some point. Los Angeles Angels: Trayce Thompson OF HS California

Those 26 picks bring up to a grand total of 75, enjoy the draft.
Posted on: November 21, 2008 3:17 pm
Edited on: November 30, 2008 6:25 pm
 

Top 15 Prospects: NL East Re-Wrap Up

NL East Top 15 Prospects Wrap Up

Top 15 Prospects: NL East Team Rankings

5. New York Mets – 46%

4. Washington Nationals – 49%

3. Philadelphia Phillies – 53%

2. Atlanta Braves – 65%

1. Florida Marlins – 84%

Top 25 Prospects of the NL East

25. Reese Havens SS Nym

Havens was taken in the sandwich portion of the first round of the 2008 draft. Havens is a likely second basemen in the future, he will play good defense there, and hit for a solid average, and some power.

24. Michael Burgess OF Was

A bad 2008 season, but still has a lot of tools, specifically his power, and arm strength.

23. Eddie Kunz RHRP Nym

Already has made his debut for the Mets, the Mets are looking externally for their next closer, but Kunz will be back towards the back-end of their rotation again in 2009. If he shores up his command he could make for a great closer.

22. Freddie Freeman 1B Atl

Really young, but has been one of the best offensive players in his league thus far. I jumped him up to the fourth ranked prospect in the Braves’ organization since last ranking their prospects.

21. Sean West LHSP Fla

West is the best starting pitcher in the Marlins’ system.  He throws a mid 90s fastball with some movement, and a power breaking pitch.  Some scouts think he is headed to the bullpen because of his awkward arm action but, I still think he can be a number two or three starter.

20. Jon Niese LHSP Nym

Niese has a killer curveball. I also see him as a number three starter.

19. Zach Collier OF Phi

Collier is athletic, and a potential 5-tooler from the 2008 draft. Collier has a ton of ability, but he is too raw right now to get a good read on him for the future.

18. Kyle Drabek RHSP Phi

Drabek has outstanding stuff, and he has recovered from Tommy John Surgery. I expect him to soar through the Phillies system, and this list next season.

17. Logan Morrison 1B Fla

You said it, and I listened. I have moved Morrison up to the 7th top prospect in Florida's system. Which allows him to be moved onto this list.

16. Chris Coghlan 2B Fla

Coghlan does most things well – except hit for power. That will make him an above-average second basemen, as early as next season if Uggla is moved from second, or traded.

15. Lou Marson C Phi

Had a breakout season offensively, and has always had the defensive capabilities to be a major league catcher. There is not anyone in Philadelphia standing in his way.

14. Kyle Skipworth C Fla

A four-tool catcher, Skipworth was taken with the sixth pick in the 2008 draft. He has a ton of raw power, and should become one of the best offensive catchers in baseball one day. He is extremely raw, so expect the Marlins to take their time with him.

13. Ryan Tucker RHRP Fla

The best reliever on this list, Tucker has great velocity, and command. Although, Matt Lindstrom is going to start the season replacing Kevin Gregg as the Marlins’ closer, I expect Tucker to finish the season with the job.

12. Matt Dominguez 3B Fla

One of my favorite prospects in all of baseball Dominguez is an exceptional fielder, he also mashed in his first pro season, hitting an unexpected 18 homeruns, while also hitting for a .296 average, and striking out only 68 times.

11. Ike Davis 1B/OF Nym

Another 2008 draftee, Davis has plus, plus power potential. I would love to see him as a corner outfielder, but he may be trapped at first, we’ll see. He should move through the system though.

10. Fernando Martinez OF Nym

I am not high on Martinez. He has lost a lot of his value, as he is not an exceptional fielder, and has not shown power in the minors. He still has a lot of potential, but his clock is ticking.

9. Chris Marrero 1B Was

A great hitter, but was hampered by injuries in 2008. He is also saddled to first base.

8. Jordan Zimmerman RHSP Was

I love this guy. He had a great statistical year in 2008, and throws a plus hard sinker, as well as three other average pitches. He is a front of the rotation starter.

7. Tommy Hanson RHSP Atl

Hanson throws a mid 90s fastball, and a plus, plus curveball. He is only 22, and already pitching well in AA. Hanson struck out 163 batters during the 2008 season.

6. Jordan Schafer OF Atl

Is no longer one of the best prospects in baseball, but Schafer is still a gold glove defender, with a lot of upside on offense – he could be a 20-20 guy every year.

5. Ross Detwiler LHSP Was

Detwiler is still a little raw, but has ace type stuff, with a large arsenal of pitches. He should be starting for Washington by 2010.

4. Carlos Carrasco RHSP Phi

Another personal favorite, Carrasco finished the season in AAA at the age of 21. He had a great season overall, and has absolutely dominating stuff, including a plus, plus changeup, and top notch fastball.

3. Mike Stanton OF Fla

Stanton hits a lot of homeruns, but strikes out even more frequently. He is extremely athletic in the outfield. He is still only 19, so he has plenty of time to refine his game. He has a lot of potential.

2. Cameron Maybin OF Fla

Still one of the best prospects in baseball, Maybin will be starting for the Marlins at some point next season. He still is a little bit of a mystery to me, and strikes out a lot.

1. Jason Heyward OF Atl

I have nothing bad to say about Heyward. He is only 19, but you can already get a good idea of what he is going to be in the big leagues. I said it in my Braves article, and I will say it again here .300 batting average, 30 HRs, 20 stolen bases, while playing great defense. What else can you ask for?

NL East First Team All-Prospect

SP Carlson Carrasco
SP Ross Detwiler
SP Tommy Hanson
SP Jordan Zimmerman
SP Jon Niese
CL Ryan Tucker

C Kyle Skipworth
1B Ike Davis
2B Chris Coghlan
SS Wilmer Flores Nym
3B Matt Dominguez Fla
OF Jason Heyward
OF Cameron Maybin
OF Mike Stanton
Honorable Mention: Logan Morrison

NL East Second Team All-Prospect

SP Kyle Drabek
SP Sean West
SP Joe Savery
SP JA Happ
SP Josh Smoker
CL Eddie Kunz
C Lou Marson
1B Chris Marrero
2B Reese Havens
SS Anthony Hewitt
3B Jason Donald

OF Jordan Schafer
OF Fernando Martinez
OF Zach Collier
Honorable Mention: Freddie Freeman

Posted on: October 17, 2008 4:06 pm
Edited on: October 21, 2008 3:57 pm
 

Top 15 Prospects: Florida Marlins

1. Cameron Maybin CF Age: 21 Minor League Level last year (MLL): AA

Obviously the most well known Marlins prospect. Maybin was the centerpiece of the Willis/Cabrera trade. He may be the best prospect possessing all five tools. In 2008 he put up numbers of .277/.376/.456 (BA/OBP/SLG), those certainly are not great numbers, but I am not going to drop him because of them. He hit 13 HRs, but should still develop more power than that. He is a good fielder, and has already begun to turn his speed into stolen bases, with 21 in 2008. Maybin does strike out a lot - but, like many Marlin's prospects he also has a high walk rate. Personally, I feel as though Maybin would benefit from a full year in AAA during the 2009 season, but do not expect it to happen. If Maybin can cut back on the strikeouts, and start finding his power, he is going to be a superstar, hopefully starting in 2010.

2. Mike Stanton OF-RF Age: 19 MLL: A-

Stanton is so hard to evaluate. There are three numbers that really stick out on his stat sheet: 1. he hit 39 HRs in 2008 2. 153 strikeouts 3. He is only 19 years old. I am going to choose to ignore the strikeouts. Why? .293/.382/.611 No player in any minor league system has a line that good. His .611 SLG% was 90 points higher than the next player's (Frederick Freeman) in the South Atlantic League. Now the strikeouts could end up being detrimental as he rises to higher levels, but I believe his other numbers support my belief that Stanton will become a real special player, and one of the best corner outfielders in baseball.

3. Matt Dominguez 3B Age: 19 MLL: A-

You will not find a someone bigger on Dominguez than me. He is a complete stud. He was drafted due to his great fielding ability - future gold glove like ability. But, in his first pro season Dominguez smashed the ball for 18 HRs while hitting for a .296 BA, and .853 OPS (on base + slugging) in low A ball. Dominguez also has the fourth highest slugging % in the South Atlantic League at just a tick under .500. He also struck out only 68 times all season. The bad, he only walked 28 times, but that is because he is still an undisciplined hitter, which makes his other numbers unbelievable. Dominguez has a bright future in front of him, and will certainly be one of the stars of this team when they go for their next championship... maybe 2012?

4. Ryan Tucker RHRP Age: 22 MLL: AA

Tucker is the Marlin's closer of the future, and with Kevin Gregg likely headed out the door that future could be in 2009. Tucker was only recently converted into a reliever, but certainly has the stuff to be an excellent late innings guy. He commands his fastball well, and has a good developing slider that he throws in the low to mid 90s.

5. Kyle Skipworth C Age: 18 MLL: R

The #6 pick in the 2008 draft. Skipworth has an incredible amount of raw power, he can hit the ball to either poll from the left side of the plate. Skipworth also possesses a great arm behind the plate, but need work receiving back there. He struggled in his first taste of pro ball, but should improve next year.

6. Chris Coghlan 2B Age: 23 MLL: AA

Another Marlin's prospect I like a lot. He has great plate patience with a K/BB ratio of 1:1. Coghlan stole 34 bases in 2008, and is good fielder at second base. If Uggla is traded during the offseason Coghlan may be able to step in immediately, and I would bet he would be solid from the start.

7. Sean West LHSP Age: 22 MLL: A+

With the graduation of Chris Volstad, Sean West becomes the Marlins' best starting pitching prospect. West had an effective season in high A ball, striking out 92, in 100 innings with an ERA of 2.41. His biggest problem is that West does not go deep enough into games to be a starter in the major leagues. Nevertheless, there is a #3, or maybe even #2 pitcher in there.

8. Gaby Sanchez 1B Age: 25 MLL: AA

Up until recently Gaby Sanchez has been a catcher, but his bat plays at first. He hits for a good average, .304 in 2008, hits for pretty good power, 17 HRs in 2008, and best of all is Sanchez' 1:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Sanchez probably will not be a star, but he is a very developed hitter, and you know what you are getting with him. If Mike Jacobs is traded this offseason Sanchez is one of the likeliest candidates to replace him - assuming Uggla doe not make the switch.

9. Logan Morrison 1B Age: 21 MLL: A+

Morrison is a low ceiling first basemen. He has all the hitting tools, he finished 2008 at .322/.402/.494 (BA/OBP/SLG%). Morrsion hit only 13 HRs, but he has more power than that. It will be interesting to see Morrison, and Sanchez battle each other for the chance to play first base for the Marlins over the next couple of years -- then again Sanchez is four years older, and could spend some time with the major league team, and then get traded to avoid a salary jump in time for Morrison to take his spot.

10. Issac Galloway OF Age: 19 MLL: R

The biggest steal of the 2008 draft. Galloway slipped to Marlins in the 8th round despite having 1st round talent. Galloway is a 5-tool outfielder, unlike most his age Galloway's power, speed, and hitting ability are already well developed, although he does not excel at any one of them. Galloway should move through the system pretty quickly, he also does not seem like the type of players to have any hiccups along the way. A perennial 20/20 player with above average defense is certainly possibly.

11. Brett Sinkbeil RHSP Age: 24 MLL: AA

Last year Baseball America ranked him the Marlins' #2 prospect. Now, I do not expect much from him. I think he is best suited as a middle reliever, which is how he will start the 2009 season.

12. John Raynor OF Age: 24 MLL: AA

Raynor's greatest tool is his speed, as he stole 48 bags last season. He still strikes out an alarming 122 times - alarming at age 24 at least, especially since he does not have great power- however, Raynor also posted a .402 OBP. He does have some power, 13 HRs last season, and is a fine fielder. Raynor's biggest problem is the depth the Marlins' have in the outfield, with Jeremy Hermida, and Josh Willingham already stationing the corners, and Maybin likely to start in center in 2009, there is nowhere for Raynor to go, but the bench.

13. Gaby Hernandez RHSP Age: 22 MLL: AAA/AA

There are a lot of people who really like Hernandez, and feel as though he can be a solid #3 starter this upcoming season, but I am not among them. At best he's an adequate #4, or 5 starter, but nothing more. He just has not showed me the numbers at the higher levels, or in his time with the Marlins.

14. Aaron Thompson LHSP Age: 21 MLL: AA

I have not given up on Thompson yet, but he doe have a lot to prove next season. All of his numbers plummeted this season, especially his K rate. Thompson is still only 21, so, do not be surprised if he makes the necessary adjustments, and springs back up into the top ten next season.

15. Bryan Peterson OF Age: 22 MLL: AA/A

An unheralded player. Peterson had a great statistical year at three levels of the minors. Peterson hit .293, with a .370 OBP, and .848 OPS, slightly above average numbers. What really impressed me was his 23 HRs, and 23 SBs. I am not sure what to expect from Peterson, but he is someone I will keep an eye on the next couple of years.


Strengths: Every position is filled. A possible 2012 lineup could look something like this:

C - Skipworth
1B - Morrison/Sanchez
2B - Coghlan
SS - Hanley Ramirez
3B - Dominguez
LF - Stanton
CF - Maybin
RF - Galloway/Hermida

That is a lineup the Marlins can win a championship with. The Marlins have a large number of potential plus power guys in Maybin, Stanton, Skipworth, Dominguez, Morrison, Sanchez, and possibly Peterson.

Weaknesses: Pitching. There are only five pitchers on this list, and none of them equate to a front of the rotation type of starting pitcher. But, the Marlins did just graduate Chris Volstad, a #1 or 2 pitcher, and still have Josh Johnson, so they may be fine without much help from the farm. Otherwise the Marlins do not have any weaknesses.

**Minor League Level distinctions
R = rookie league
sA = short season A ball
A- = low A ball
A+ = high A ball
A = player spent time at both A levels


Next up: The New York Mets
Category: MLB
 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com